Barbosa Isabelle Ribeiro, Souza Dyego Leandro Bezerra de, Bernal María Milagros, Costa Iris do Céu Clara
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, Brasil,
Universidad de Zaragoza, Brasil.
Cien Saude Colet. 2016 Jan;21(1):253-62. doi: 10.1590/1413-81232015211.03662015.
The scope of this article is to analyze the temporal trends of cervical cancer mortality in Brazil and calculate the projection of mortality through to the year 2030. Deaths that occurred within the 1996-2010 period were analyzed (Mortality Information System). Mortality trend analysis utilized the Joinpoint regression, while Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of projections. For Brazil, decreasing trends were identified (APC = 1.7% CI95%-2.2; -1.1 p < 0.05). The Midwest region presented a significant reduction trend (APC = -1.3% per year), along with the Southeast (APC = -3.3%) and South (APC = -3.9%) regions. The North and Northeast regions presented stable trends. The states of Acre (APC = -6.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (APC = -4.1%) presented the most pronounced reduction trends. Analysis of the mortality projections revealed a reduction in mortality rates, starting from the first projected period, with a considerable reduction for the South region. Mortality rates through to the year 2030 are explained, principally, by reductions in the risk of the disease. Cervical cancer mortality presents reducing trends, however these are unequally distributed throughout the country, where the North and Northeast regions present the highest mortality rates.
本文的范围是分析巴西宫颈癌死亡率的时间趋势,并计算直至2030年的死亡率预测。对1996 - 2010年期间发生的死亡情况进行了分析(死亡率信息系统)。死亡率趋势分析采用Joinpoint回归,而Nordpred用于预测计算。对于巴西,发现了下降趋势(年度百分比变化 = 1.7%,95%置信区间为 -2.2;-1.1,p < 0.05)。中西部地区呈现出显著的下降趋势(年度百分比变化 = -1.3%/年),东南部(年度百分比变化 = -3.3%)和南部(年度百分比变化 = -3.9%)地区也是如此。北部和东北部地区呈现出稳定趋势。阿克里州(年度百分比变化 = -6.5%)和南里奥格兰德州(年度百分比变化 = -4.1%)呈现出最明显的下降趋势。对死亡率预测的分析表明,从第一个预测期开始死亡率就有所下降,南部地区下降幅度相当大。直至2030年的死亡率主要是由于疾病风险的降低。宫颈癌死亡率呈现下降趋势,然而在全国分布不均,北部和东北部地区死亡率最高。