Institute for Economic and Innovation Research, JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Leonhardstraße 59, 8010 Graz, Austria.
Institute for Water, Energy and Sustainability, JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Elisabethstraße 18/II, 8010 Graz, Austria.
Sci Total Environ. 2016 Feb 1;543(Pt B):1039-53. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.099. Epub 2015 Apr 16.
Tourism represents an important source of income and employment in many Mediterranean regions, including the island of Sardinia (Italy) and the Cap Bon peninsula (Tunisia). Climate change may however impact tourism in both regions, for example, by altering the regions' climatic suitability for common tourism types or affecting water availability. This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on tourism in the case study regions of Sardinia and Cap Bon. Direct impacts are studied in a quantitative way by applying a range of climate scenario data on the empirically estimated relationship between climatic conditions and tourism demand, using two different approaches. Results indicate a potential for climate-induced tourism revenue gains especially in the shoulder seasons during spring and autumn, but also a threat of climate-induced revenue losses in the summer months due to increased heat stress. Annual direct net impacts are nevertheless suggested to be (slightly) positive in both case study regions. Significant climate-induced reductions in total available water may however somewhat counteract the positive direct impacts of climate change by putting additional water costs on the tourism industry.
旅游业是许多地中海地区（包括意大利的撒丁岛和突尼斯的邦角半岛）的重要收入和就业来源。然而，气候变化可能会对这两个地区的旅游业产生影响，例如，通过改变这些地区对常见旅游类型的气候适宜性或影响水资源的可获得性。本文评估了气候变化对撒丁岛和邦角半岛案例研究地区旅游业的潜在影响。通过应用一系列气候情景数据，对气候条件和旅游需求之间的经验估计关系进行定量研究，采用了两种不同的方法来研究直接影响。结果表明，由于热应激增加，夏季气候引起的收入损失的威胁很大，但在春季和秋季的淡季，由于气候引起的旅游收入增长的潜力很大。然而，在这两个案例研究地区，年度直接净影响预计（略有）为正。然而，由于旅游业将面临额外的水费支出，总可用水量的显著减少可能会对气候变化的积极直接影响产生一定的抵消作用。
