Geology Department, State University of New York College at Cortland, Cortland, NY 13045, USA.
Environ Sci Process Impacts. 2015 Jun;17(6):1098-110. doi: 10.1039/c5em00092k. Epub 2015 Apr 20.
Anthropogenic climate change has impacted and will continue to impact the natural environment and people around the world. Increasing temperatures and altered rainfall patterns combined with socio-economic factors such as population changes, land use changes and water transfers will affect flows and nutrient fluxes in river systems. The Ganga river, one of the largest river systems in the world, supports approximately 10% global population and more than 700 cities. Changes in the Ganga river system are likely to have a significant impact on water availability, water quality, aquatic habitats and people. In order to investigate these potential changes on the flow and water quality of the Ganga river, a multi-branch version of INCA Phosphorus (INCA-P) model has been applied to the entire river system. The model is used to quantify the impacts from a changing climate, population growth, additional agricultural land, pollution control and water transfers for 2041-2060 and 2080-2099. The results provide valuable information about potential effects of different management strategies on catchment water quality.
人为气候变化已经并将继续影响全世界的自然环境和人民。气温升高和降雨模式改变，加上人口变化、土地利用变化和调水等社会经济因素，将影响河流系统的水流和养分通量。恒河是世界上最大的河流系统之一，为全球约 10%的人口和 700 多个城市提供支持。恒河系统的变化可能会对水的供应、水质、水生栖息地和人民产生重大影响。为了研究恒河水流和水质的这些潜在变化，已经将多分支版的 INCA 磷模型（INCA-P）应用于整个河流系统。该模型用于量化气候变化、人口增长、新增农业用地、污染控制和 2041-2060 年和 2080-2099 年调水对水流和水质的影响。研究结果提供了有关不同管理策略对集水区水质潜在影响的有价值信息。
