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大城市生物质燃烧排放的颗粒物对健康的影响和经济成本。

Health impact and monetary cost of exposure to particulate matter emitted from biomass burning in large cities.

机构信息

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, Environmental Engineering Laboratory, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece; Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece.

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, Environmental Engineering Laboratory, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece; Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2015 Aug 15;524-525:319-30. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.02.108. Epub 2015 Apr 22.

Abstract

The study deals with the assessment of health impact and the respective economic cost attributed to particulate matter (PM) emitted into the atmosphere from biomass burning for space heating, focusing on the differences between the warm and cold seasons in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 in Thessaloniki (Greece). Health impact was assessed based on estimated exposure levels and the use of established WHO concentration-response functions (CRFs) for all-cause mortality, infant mortality, new chronic bronchitis cases, respiratory and cardiac hospital admissions. Monetary cost was based on the valuation of the willingness-to-pay/accept (WTP/WTA), to avoid or compensate for the loss of welfare associated with illness. Results showed that long term mortality during the 2012-2013 winter increased by 200 excess deaths in a city of almost 900,000 inhabitants or 3540 years of life lost, corresponding to an economic cost of almost 200-250m€. New chronic bronchitis cases dominate morbidity estimates (490 additional new cases corresponding to a monetary cost of 30m€). Estimated health and monetary impacts are more severe during the cold season, despite its smaller duration (4 months). Considering that the increased ambient air concentrations (and the integral of outdoor/indoor exposure) are explained by shifting from oil to biomass for domestic heating purposes, several alternative scenarios were evaluated. Policy scenario analysis revealed that significant public health and monetary benefits (up to 2b€ in avoided mortality and 130m€ in avoided illness) might be obtained by limiting the biomass share in the domestic heat energy mix. Fiscal policy affecting fuels/technologies used for domestic heating needs to be reconsidered urgently, since the net tax loss from avoided oil taxation due to reduced consumption was further compounded by the public health cost of increased mid-term morbidity and mortality.

摘要

本研究评估了生物质燃烧排放到大气中的颗粒物(PM)对健康的影响及其相应的经济成本,重点关注了 2011-2012 年和 2012-2013 年冷暖两季在塞萨洛尼基(希腊)的差异。健康影响是基于估计的暴露水平和使用已建立的世卫组织浓度-反应函数(CRF)进行评估的,这些函数涵盖了所有原因的死亡率、婴儿死亡率、新慢性支气管炎病例、呼吸和心脏住院人数。货币成本是基于对避免或补偿与疾病相关的福利损失的支付意愿/接受意愿(WTP/WTA)的估值。结果表明,在一个拥有近 90 万居民的城市中,2012-2013 年冬季长期死亡率增加了 200 例超额死亡,相当于 3540 年的生命损失,经济成本接近 2 亿欧元至 2.5 亿欧元。新慢性支气管炎病例占发病率估计的主导地位(额外增加 490 例新病例,对应的货币成本为 3000 万欧元)。尽管寒冷季节的持续时间较短(4 个月),但其估计的健康和货币影响更为严重。考虑到环境空气中浓度的增加(以及室外/室内暴露的积分)是由于为家庭供暖目的从石油转向生物质造成的,评估了几种替代方案。政策情景分析表明,通过限制生物质在国内能源组合中的份额,可以获得显著的公共卫生和经济效益(避免死亡人数达 20 亿欧元,避免疾病达 1.3 亿欧元)。需要紧急重新考虑影响家庭供暖用燃料/技术的财政政策,因为由于消费减少而避免的石油税收的净税收损失,由于中期发病率和死亡率增加而导致的公共卫生成本进一步加剧。

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