Drouillard Antoine, Bouvier Anne-Marie, Rollot Fabien, Faivre Jean, Jooste Valérie, Lepage Côme
Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy, INSERM U866, University Hospital Dijon, University of Burgundy, Dijon, France.
Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy, INSERM U866, University Hospital Dijon, University of Burgundy, Dijon, France.
Dig Liver Dis. 2015 Jul;47(7):597-601. doi: 10.1016/j.dld.2015.03.013. Epub 2015 Mar 27.
Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years.
Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years.
The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis.
For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians.
传统上，生存估计报告为自诊断之时起的生存情况。患者的生存概率会根据自诊断以来经过的时间而变化，这被称为条件生存。目的是在一个明确界定的法国人群中，对结直肠癌患者每年进行一次直至5年的5年净条件生存估计。
我们的研究纳入了1976年至2008年间诊断的18300例结直肠癌病例，这些病例登记在法国勃艮第基于人群的消化道癌症登记处。我们使用波哈尔·佩尔梅估计器计算了诊断后存活1至5年中每多存活一年的条件5年净生存情况。
最初的5年净生存估计在I期的89%和晚期癌症的9%之间变化。5年后仍存活的患者相应的5年净生存为95%和75%。存活5年的II期和III期患者再存活5年的概率相似，分别为87%和84%。对于诊断后第一年存活的患者，无论年龄组和诊断时期如何，5年条件净生存情况相似。
对于结直肠癌幸存者，条件净生存为患者和临床医生提供了相关且互补的预后信息。
