Chassy Philippe, Gobet Fernand
Department of Psychology, Liverpool Hope University, United Kingdom.
Department of Psychological Sciences, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Cognition. 2015 Aug;141:36-40. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2015.04.008. Epub 2015 Apr 24.
The projections of experts in politics predict that a new world order will emerge within two decades. Being multipolar, this world will inevitably lead to frictions where civilizations and states will have to decide whether to risk conflict. Very often these decisions are informed if not taken by experts. To estimate risk-taking across civilizations, we examined strategies used in 667,599 chess games played over eleven years by chess experts from 11 different civilizations. We show that some civilizations are more inclined to settle for peace. Similarly, we show that once engaged in the battle, the level of risk taking varies significantly across civilizations, the boldest civilization using the riskiest strategy about 35% more than the most conservative civilization. We discuss which psychological factors might underpin these civilizational differences.
政治领域的专家预测，新的世界秩序将在二十年内出现。这个多极世界不可避免地会引发摩擦，不同文明和国家将不得不决定是否要冒冲突的风险。这些决策往往是由专家提供信息甚至做出的。为了评估不同文明的冒险倾向，我们研究了来自11种不同文明的国际象棋专家在十一年里进行的667599场棋局中所采用的策略。我们发现，有些文明更倾向于寻求和平。同样，我们还发现，一旦卷入战斗，不同文明的冒险程度差异显著，最勇敢的文明使用最冒险策略的频率比最保守的文明高出约35%。我们探讨了哪些心理因素可能是这些文明差异的基础。
