Chemaitelly H, Abu-Raddad L J
Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group,Weill Cornell Medical College - Qatar,Cornell University,Qatar Foundation - Education City,Doha,Qatar.
Epidemiol Infect. 2016 Jan;144(1):90-6. doi: 10.1017/S0950268815000758. Epub 2015 Apr 28.
Using a set of statistical methods and HIV mathematical models applied on nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data, we characterized HIV serodiscordancy patterns and HIV transmission dynamics in stable couples (SCs) in four countries: Cambodia, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and India. The majority of SCs affected by HIV were serodiscordant, and about a third of HIV-infected persons had uninfected partners. Overall, nearly two-thirds of HIV infections occurred in individuals in SCs, but only about half of these infections were due to transmissions within serodiscordant couples. The majority of HIV incidence in the population occurred through extra-partner encounters in SCs. There is similarity in HIV epidemiology in SCs between these countries and countries in sub-Saharan Africa, despite the difference in scale of epidemics. It appears that HIV epidemiology in SCs may share similar patterns globally, possibly because it is a natural 'spillover' effect of HIV dynamics in high-risk populations.
我们运用一系列统计方法和艾滋病毒数学模型，对柬埔寨、多米尼加共和国、海地和印度四个国家具有全国代表性的人口与健康调查数据进行分析，从而描绘出稳定伴侣中艾滋病毒血清学不一致模式及艾滋病毒传播动态。受艾滋病毒影响的大多数稳定伴侣存在血清学不一致情况，约三分之一的艾滋病毒感染者有未感染的伴侣。总体而言，近三分之二的艾滋病毒感染发生在稳定伴侣中的个体身上，但其中只有约一半的感染是由血清学不一致的伴侣间传播所致。该人群中大多数艾滋病毒新发感染是通过稳定伴侣中的非伴侣接触发生的。尽管这些国家与撒哈拉以南非洲国家在疫情规模上存在差异，但稳定伴侣中的艾滋病毒流行病学情况具有相似性。似乎稳定伴侣中的艾滋病毒流行病学在全球可能具有相似模式，这可能是因为它是高危人群中艾滋病毒动态的一种自然“溢出”效应。
