Leveau Carlos M, Uez Osvaldo, Vacchino Marta N
Instituto Nacional de Epidemiología "Juan H. Jara", ANLIS Malbrán, Argentina.
Rev Inst Med Trop Sao Paulo. 2015 Mar-Apr;57(2):133-8. doi: 10.1590/S0036-46652015000200006.
The aim of this paper was to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Argentina. A space-time permutation scan statistic was performed to test the non-randomness in the interaction between space and time in reported influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases. In 2009, two clusters were recorded in the east of Buenos Aires Province (May and June) and in the central and northern part of Argentina (July and August). Between 2011 and 2012, clusters near areas bordering other countries were registered. Within the clusters, in 2009, the high notification rates were first observed in the school-age population and then extended to the older population (15-59 years). From 2011 onwards, higher rates of reported cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred in children under five years in center of the country. Two stages of transmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 can be characterized. The first stage had high rates of notification and a possible interaction with individuals from other countries in the major cities of Argentina (pattern of hierarchy), and the second stage had an increased interaction in some border areas without a clear pattern of hierarchy. These results suggest the need for greater coordination in the Southern Cone countries, in order to implement joint prevention and vaccination policies.
本文旨在分析阿根廷甲型H1N1pdm09流感病例的时空变化情况。采用时空置换扫描统计量来检验报告的甲型H1N1pdm09流感病例中空间与时间相互作用的非随机性。2009年，在布宜诺斯艾利斯省东部（5月和6月）以及阿根廷中部和北部（7月和8月）记录到两个聚集区。在2011年至2012年期间，在与其他国家接壤的地区附近记录到聚集区。在这些聚集区内，2009年，高报告率首先在学龄人口中出现，然后扩展到老年人口（15 - 59岁）。从2011年起，该国中部五岁以下儿童中甲型H1N1pdm09流感报告病例率较高。甲型H1N1pdm09流感的传播可分为两个阶段。第一阶段报告率高，且在阿根廷主要城市可能与来自其他国家的个体存在相互作用（层级模式），第二阶段在一些边境地区相互作用增加，但没有明确的层级模式。这些结果表明，南锥体国家需要加强协调，以便实施联合预防和疫苗接种政策。
