Xiao Hong, Tian HuaiYu, Zhao Jian, Zhang XiXing, Li YaPin, Liu Yi, Liu RuChun, Chen TianMu
1College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, 410081 China.
2Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, 100191 China.
Chin Sci Bull. 2011;56(24):2613-2620. doi: 10.1007/s11434-011-4598-5. Epub 2011 Aug 6.
Influenza A (H1N1) was spread widely between cities and towns by road traffic and had a major impact on public health in China in 2009. Understanding regulation of its transmission is of great significance with urbanization ongoing and for mitigation of damage by the epidemic. We analyzed influenza A (H1N1) spatiotemporal transmission and risk factors along roads in Changsha, and combined diffusion velocity and floating population size to construct an epidemic diffusion model to simulate its transmission between cities and towns. The results showed that areas along the highways and road intersections had a higher incidence rate than other areas. Expressways and county roads played an important role in the rapid development stage and the epidemic peak, respectively, and intercity bus stations showed a high risk of disease transmission. The model simulates the intensity and center of disease outbreaks in cities and towns, and provides a more complete simulation of the disease spatiotemporal process than other models.
甲型H1N1流感通过道路交通在城乡之间广泛传播，2009年对中国公共卫生造成了重大影响。随着城市化进程的推进以及为减轻疫情造成的损害，了解其传播规律具有重要意义。我们分析了长沙市甲型H1N1流感沿道路的时空传播及危险因素，并结合扩散速度和流动人口规模构建了疫情扩散模型，以模拟其在城乡之间的传播。结果表明，高速公路沿线和道路交叉口区域的发病率高于其他区域。高速公路和县道分别在疫情快速发展阶段和高峰期发挥了重要作用，而城际汽车站显示出疾病传播的高风险。该模型模拟了城乡疾病爆发的强度和中心，比其他模型更完整地模拟了疾病的时空过程。
