Liang Yu-Hao, Juang Jonq
Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan.
Department of Applied Mathematics, and Center of Mathematics Modeling and Scientific Computing, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan.
Chaos. 2015 Apr;25(4):043116. doi: 10.1063/1.4919245.
An SIS model based on the microscopic Markov-chain approximation is considered in this paper. It is assumed that the individual vaccination behavior depends on the contact awareness, local and global information of an epidemic. To better simulate the real situation, the vaccine failure rate is also taken into consideration. Our main conclusions are given in the following. First, we show that if the vaccine failure rate α is zero, then the epidemic eventually dies out regardless of what the network structure is or how large the effective spreading rate and the immunization response rates of an epidemic are. Second, we show that for any positive α, there exists a positive epidemic threshold depending on an adjusted network structure, which is only determined by the structure of the original network, the positive vaccine failure rate and the immunization response rate for contact awareness. Moreover, the epidemic threshold increases with respect to the strength of the immunization response rate for contact awareness. Finally, if the vaccine failure rate and the immunization response rate for contact awareness are positive, then there exists a critical vaccine failure rate αc > 0 so that the disease free equilibrium (DFE) is stable (resp., unstable) if α < αc (resp., α > αc). Numerical simulations to see the effectiveness of our theoretical results are also provided.
本文考虑了一种基于微观马尔可夫链近似的SIS模型。假设个体的疫苗接种行为取决于对疫情的接触意识、局部和全局信息。为了更好地模拟实际情况,还考虑了疫苗失败率。我们的主要结论如下。首先,我们表明,如果疫苗失败率α为零,那么无论网络结构如何,也无论疫情的有效传播率和免疫反应率有多大,疫情最终都会消失。其次,我们表明,对于任何正的α,存在一个取决于调整后网络结构的正的疫情阈值,它仅由原始网络的结构、正的疫苗失败率和对接触意识的免疫反应率决定。此外,疫情阈值随着对接触意识的免疫反应率的强度而增加。最后,如果疫苗失败率和对接触意识的免疫反应率为正,那么存在一个临界疫苗失败率αc > 0,使得如果α < αc(分别地,α > αc),无病平衡点(DFE)是稳定的(分别地,不稳定的)。还提供了数值模拟以验证我们理论结果的有效性。