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疫苗成效与认知对疫情动态的影响。

The impact of vaccine success and awareness on epidemic dynamics.

作者信息

Juang Jonq, Liang Yu-Hao

机构信息

Department of Applied Mathematics, and Center of Mathematics Modeling and Scientific Computing, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan.

Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan.

出版信息

Chaos. 2016 Nov;26(11):113105. doi: 10.1063/1.4966945.

DOI:10.1063/1.4966945
PMID:27907992
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7112448/
Abstract

The role of vaccine success is introduced into an epidemic spreading model consisting of three states: susceptible, infectious, and vaccinated. Moreover, the effect of three types, namely, contact, local, and global, of infection awareness and immunization awareness is also taken into consideration. The model generalizes those considered in Pastor-Satorras and Vespignani [Phys. Rev. E 63, 066117 (2001)], Pastor-Satorras and Vespignani [Phys. Rev. E 65, 036104 (2002)], Moreno et al. [Eur. Phys. J. B 26, 521-529 (2002)], Wu et al. [Chaos 22, 013101 (2012)], and Wu et al. [Chaos 24, 023108 (2014)]. Our main results contain the following. First, the epidemic threshold is explicitly obtained. In particular, we show that, for any initial conditions, the epidemic eventually dies out regardless of what other factors are whenever some type of immunization awareness is considered, and vaccination has a perfect success. Moreover, the threshold is independent of the global type of awareness. Second, we compare the effect of contact and local types of awareness on the epidemic thresholds between heterogeneous networks and homogeneous networks. Specifically, we find that the epidemic threshold for the homogeneous network can be lower than that of the heterogeneous network in an intermediate regime for intensity of contact infection awareness while it is higher otherwise. In summary, our results highlight the important and crucial roles of both vaccine success and contact infection awareness on epidemic dynamics.

摘要

疫苗接种成效的作用被引入到一个由易感、感染和接种三种状态组成的流行病传播模型中。此外,还考虑了接触、局部和全局三种类型的感染意识和免疫意识的影响。该模型推广了Pastor-Satorras和Vespignani [《物理评论E》63, 066117 (2001)]、Pastor-Satorras和Vespignani [《物理评论E》65, 036104 (2002)]、Moreno等人 [《欧洲物理杂志B》26, 521 - 529 (2002)]、Wu等人 [《混沌》22, 013101 (2012)] 以及Wu等人 [《混沌》24, 023108 (2014)] 所考虑的模型。我们的主要结果如下。首先,明确得到了流行病阈值。特别地,我们表明,对于任何初始条件,无论考虑何种其他因素,只要考虑某种类型的免疫意识,流行病最终都会消亡,并且疫苗接种取得完美成功。此外,该阈值与全局类型的意识无关。其次,我们比较了接触型和局部型意识对异构网络和同构网络中流行病阈值的影响。具体而言,我们发现,在接触感染意识强度的中间区域,同构网络的流行病阈值可能低于异构网络,否则则更高。总之,我们的结果突出了疫苗接种成效和接触感染意识在流行病动力学中的重要且关键的作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5840/7112448/e47b11e712dd/CHAOEH-000026-113105_1-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5840/7112448/e47b11e712dd/CHAOEH-000026-113105_1-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5840/7112448/e47b11e712dd/CHAOEH-000026-113105_1-g001.jpg

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