Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes 12/1, Riga LV1048, Latvia.
Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes 12/1, Riga LV1048, Latvia.
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Sep 15;527-528:80-90. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.088. Epub 2015 May 14.
European Union (EU) Member States have agreed to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS). That includes also emissions from agricultural sector. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from agriculture, the forecasting options are limited, especially when policies and their interaction with the agricultural system are tested. Therefore, an advanced tool, a system dynamics model, was developed that enables assessment of effects various decisions and measures have on agricultural GHG emissions. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines and includes the main elements of an agricultural system, i.e. land management, livestock farming, soil fertilization and crop production, as well as feedback mechanisms between the elements. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as agriculture generates 22% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country. The results demonstrate that there are very limited options for GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. Thereby, reaching the non-ETS GHG emission targets will be very challenging for Latvia, as the level of agricultural GHG emissions will be exceeded considerably above the target levels. Thus, other non-ETS sectors will have to reduce their emissions drastically to "neutralize" the agricultural sector's emissions for reaching the EU's common ambition to move towards low-carbon economy. The developed model may serve as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures and decisions on the agricultural system's GHG emissions. Although the model is applied to the case of Latvia, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to agricultural systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze decisions and measures in other countries.
欧盟成员国已同意限制其在欧盟排放交易体系（ETS）之外的部门的温室气体（GHG）排放。这也包括农业部门的排放。尽管政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）已经制定了评估农业温室气体排放的方法，但预测选项有限，特别是在测试政策及其与农业系统的相互作用时。因此，开发了一种先进的工具，即系统动力学模型，用于评估各种决策和措施对农业 GHG 排放的影响。该模型基于 IPCC 指南，包括农业系统的主要要素，即土地管理、畜牧业、土壤施肥和作物生产，以及各要素之间的反馈机制。选择拉脱维亚进行模拟，因为农业在该国人为温室气体排放总量中占 22%。结果表明，农业部门减少温室气体的选择非常有限。因此，对于拉脱维亚来说，达到非 ETS 温室气体排放目标将极具挑战性，因为农业温室气体排放量将远远超过目标水平。因此，其他非 ETS 部门将不得不大幅减少排放，以“中和”农业部门的排放，从而实现欧盟向低碳经济转型的共同目标。所开发的模型可作为评估各种措施和决策对农业系统温室气体排放影响的决策支持工具。尽管该模型适用于拉脱维亚的情况，但所开发的模型的要素和结构与许多国家的农业系统相似。通过更改某些参数的数值，可以将模型应用于分析其他国家的决策和措施。
