Probst Charlotte, Moyo Daniel, Purshouse Robin, Rehm Jürgen
Institute for Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany.
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Social and Epidemiological Research Department, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Addiction. 2015 Aug;110(8):1272-80. doi: 10.1111/add.12985.
Risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) is a health threat, particularly at younger ages. The study aimed to quantify transition probabilities (TPs) between abstinence, use of alcohol, RSOD and frequent RSOD, and to understand how TPs are associated with key demographic factors.
Cohort study (baseline, two follow-ups). A Markov model was fitted to estimate annual TPs and hazard ratios (HRs) for age, sex and socio-economic status (SES).
Adolescent and young adult general population of Munich (Germany) and surrounding areas.
A total of 3021 people aged 14-25 years at baseline in 1995 followed-up in 1998/1999 (n = 2548) and 2003-2005 (n = 2210).
Alcohol use, RSOD status, age, sex and SES (subjective financial situation) were assessed in a standardized interview.
The highest TPs (> 65%) were found for staying in the same drinking state. Higher age [hazard ratio (HR) for 1-year increase = 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.84-0.91], being female (HR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.21-0.42), and a high SES (HR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.43-0.97) were associated with a lower hazard to progress from use to RSOD. While age was associated predominantly with transitions between abstinence and alcohol use, sex was more relevant for transitions associated with RSOD and frequent RSOD.
German adolescents and young adults tend to be stable in the drinking states of abstinence, use of alcohol, risky single-occasion drinking and frequent risky single-occasion drinking. Females are less likely to transition to riskier states and more likely to transition back from frequent risky single-occasion drinking, higher age is associated with lower hazard of transitioning and participants of higher socio-economic status are less likely to transition from 'use of alcohol' to 'risky single-occasion drinking'.
危险的单次饮酒（RSOD）对健康构成威胁，尤其是在较年轻的年龄段。本研究旨在量化戒酒、饮酒、危险的单次饮酒和频繁危险的单次饮酒之间的转变概率（TPs），并了解这些转变概率如何与关键人口统计学因素相关联。
队列研究（基线、两次随访）。采用马尔可夫模型来估计年龄、性别和社会经济地位（SES）的年度转变概率和风险比（HRs）。
德国慕尼黑及周边地区的青少年和青年成年人普通人群。
1995年基线时年龄在14 - 25岁的3021人，分别于1998/1999年（n = 2548）和2003 - 2005年（n = 2210）进行随访。
通过标准化访谈评估饮酒情况、危险的单次饮酒状态、年龄、性别和社会经济地位（主观财务状况）。
发现处于相同饮酒状态的转变概率最高（> 65%）。年龄增长一岁的风险比（HR）= 0.87，95%置信区间（CI）= 0.84 - 0.91，女性（HR = 0.30，95% CI = 0.21 - 0.42）以及较高的社会经济地位（HR = 0.64，95% CI = 0.43 - 0.97）与从饮酒转变为危险的单次饮酒的较低风险相关。虽然年龄主要与戒酒和饮酒之间的转变有关，但性别与危险的单次饮酒和频繁危险的单次饮酒相关的转变更为相关。
德国青少年和青年成年人在戒酒、饮酒、危险的单次饮酒和频繁危险的单次饮酒的饮酒状态方面往往较为稳定。女性转变为更危险状态的可能性较小，且从频繁危险的单次饮酒转变回来的可能性更大，年龄增长与转变风险降低相关，社会经济地位较高的参与者从“饮酒”转变为“危险的单次饮酒”的可能性较小。
