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使用捕获-再捕获方法估算华盛顿特区注射毒品者的人数。

Using Capture-Recapture Methods to Estimate the Population of People Who Inject Drugs in Washington, DC.

作者信息

Ruiz Monica S, O'Rourke Allison, Allen Sean T

机构信息

Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, 950 New Hampshire Ave, Suite 300, Washington, DC, 20052, USA.

出版信息

AIDS Behav. 2016 Feb;20(2):363-8. doi: 10.1007/s10461-015-1085-z.

DOI:10.1007/s10461-015-1085-z
PMID:25963771
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4754316/
Abstract

No current estimates exist for the size of the population of people who inject drugs (PWID) in the District of Columbia (DC). The WHO/UNAIDS Guidelines on Estimating the Size of Populations Most at Risk to HIV was used as the methodological framework to estimate the DC PWID population. The capture phase recruited harm reduction agency clients; the recapture phase recruited community-based PWID. The 951 participants were predominantly Black (83.9 %), male (69.8 %), and 40+ years of age (68.2 %). Approximately 50.3 % reported injecting drugs in the past 30 days. We estimate approximately 8829 (95 % CI 4899 and 12,759) PWID in DC. When adjusted for possible missed sub-populations of PWID, the estimate increases to 12,000; thus, the original estimate of approximately 9000 should be viewed in the context of the 95 % confidence interval. These evidence-based estimations should be used to determine program delivery needs and resource allocation for PWID in Washington, DC.

摘要

目前尚无关于哥伦比亚特区注射毒品者(PWID)人口规模的估计数据。世界卫生组织/联合国艾滋病规划署《估计最易感染艾滋病毒人群规模指南》被用作估计哥伦比亚特区注射毒品者人口的方法框架。捕获阶段招募了减少伤害机构的客户;再捕获阶段招募了社区注射毒品者。951名参与者主要为黑人(83.9%)、男性(69.8%),年龄在40岁及以上(68.2%)。约50.3%的人报告在过去30天内注射过毒品。我们估计哥伦比亚特区约有8829名注射毒品者(95%置信区间为4899至12759)。在对可能遗漏的注射毒品者亚人群进行调整后,估计人数增至12000人;因此,最初约9000人的估计应结合95%置信区间来看待。这些基于证据的估计应被用于确定华盛顿特区注射毒品者的项目实施需求和资源分配。

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