Sean T. Allen, Rebecca Hamilton White, and Susan G. Sherman are with the Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD. Allison O'Rourke is with the DC Center for AIDS Research, George Washington University, Washington, DC. Kristin E. Schneider is with the Department of Mental Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. Michael Kilkenny is with the Cabell-Huntington Health Department, Huntington, WV.
Am J Public Health. 2019 Mar;109(3):445-450. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304873. Epub 2019 Jan 24.
To demonstrate how we applied the capture-recapture method for population estimation directly in a rural Appalachian county (Cabell County, WV) to estimate the number of people who inject drugs (PWID).
We conducted 2 separate 2-week periods of data collection in June ("capture") and July ("recapture") 2018. We recruited PWID from a syringe services program and in community locations where PWID were known to congregate. Participants completed a survey that included measures related to sociodemographics, substance use, and HIV and hepatitis C virus prevention.
In total, 797 surveys were completed; of these surveys, 49.6% (n = 395) reflected PWID who reported injection drug use in the past 6 months and Cabell County residence. We estimated that there were 1857 (95% confidence interval = 1147, 2567) PWID in Cabell County. Among these individuals, most reported being White (83.4%), younger than 40 years (70.9%), and male (59.5%). The majority reported injecting heroin (82.0%), methamphetamine (71.0%), and fentanyl (56.3%) in the past 6 months.
Capture-recapture methods can be applied in rural settings to estimate the size of PWID populations.
展示我们如何将捕获再捕获方法直接应用于农村阿巴拉契亚县（西弗吉尼亚州卡贝尔县）的人口估计，以估计注射毒品者（PWID）的数量。
我们在 2018 年 6 月（“捕获”）和 7 月（“再捕获”）进行了两次为期两周的单独数据收集。我们从一个注射器服务计划和注射毒品者聚集的社区场所招募了注射毒品者。参与者完成了一项调查，其中包括与社会人口统计学、药物使用以及艾滋病毒和丙型肝炎病毒预防相关的措施。
共完成了 797 份调查；其中，49.6%（n=395）反映了过去 6 个月内在卡贝尔县居住并报告注射吸毒的 PWID。我们估计卡贝尔县有 1857 名（95%置信区间=1147，2567）PWID。在这些人中，大多数报告自己是白人（83.4%），年龄小于 40 岁（70.9%），并且是男性（59.5%）。大多数人报告过去 6 个月内注射过海洛因（82.0%）、冰毒（71.0%）和芬太尼（56.3%）。
捕获再捕获方法可以应用于农村地区，以估计 PWID 人群的规模。
