Medical Record Information Section, Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital, 264000, Shandong, China.
Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
AIDS Res Ther. 2022 Feb 19;19(1):9. doi: 10.1186/s12981-022-00434-7.
Estimating the population sizes of key populations(people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men, transgender persons, and commercial sex workers) is critical for understanding the overall Human Immunodeficiency Virus burden. This scoping review aims to synthesize existing methods for population size estimation among key populations, and provide recommendations for future application of the existing methods.
Relevant studies published from 1st January 2000 to 4th August 2020 and related to key population size estimation were retrieved and 120 of 688 studies were assessed. After reading the full texts, 81 studies were further excluded. Therefore, 39 studies were included in this scoping review. Estimation methods included five digital methods, one in-person method, and four hybrid methods.
We summarized and organized the methods for population size estimateion into the following five categories: methods based on independent samples (including capture-recapture method and multiplier method), methods based on population counting (including Delphi method and mapping method), methods based on the official report (including workbook method), methods based on social network (including respondent-driven sampling method and network scale-up method) and methods based on data-driven technologies (Bayesian estimation method, Stochastic simulation method, and Laska, Meisner, and Siegel estimation method). Thirty-six (92%) articles were published after 2010 and 23 (59%) used multiple methods. Among the articles published after 2010, 11 in high-income countries and 28 in low-income countries. A total of 10 estimated the size of commercial sex workers, 14 focused on men who have sex with men, and 10 focused on people who inject drugs.
There was no gold standard for population size estimation. Among 120 studies that were related to population size estimation of key populations, the most commonly used population estimation method is the multiplier method (26/120 studies). Every method has its strengths and biases. In recent years, novel methods based on data-driven technologies such as Bayesian estimation have been developed and applied in many surveys.
估计关键人群（注射毒品者、男男性行为者、跨性别者和性工作者）的人口规模对于了解总体艾滋病毒负担至关重要。本范围综述旨在综合现有的关键人群人口规模估计方法，并为现有方法的未来应用提供建议。
检索了 2000 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 8 月 4 日发表的与关键人群人口规模估计相关的相关研究，并评估了其中的 688 项研究中的 120 项。在阅读全文后，进一步排除了 81 项研究。因此，本范围综述纳入了 39 项研究。估计方法包括五种数字方法、一种面对面方法和四种混合方法。
我们将人口规模估计方法总结和组织为以下五类：基于独立样本的方法（包括捕获-再捕获法和乘数法）、基于人口计数的方法（包括德尔菲法和映射法）、基于官方报告的方法（包括工作簿法）、基于社会网络的方法（包括应答驱动抽样法和网络扩展法）和基于数据驱动技术的方法（贝叶斯估计法、随机模拟法和 Laska、Meisner 和 Siegel 估计法）。36 篇（92%）文章发表于 2010 年之后，23 篇（59%）使用了多种方法。在 2010 年之后发表的文章中，有 11 篇来自高收入国家，28 篇来自低收入国家。总共估计了 10 个性工作者的规模，14 项研究关注男男性行为者，10 项研究关注注射毒品者。
没有人口规模估计的黄金标准。在 120 项与关键人群人口规模估计相关的研究中，最常用的人口估计方法是乘数法（26/120 项研究）。每种方法都有其优势和偏差。近年来，基于数据驱动技术的新方法，如贝叶斯估计法，已经得到发展并应用于许多调查中。
