Huang Zhi-gang, Wang Xiao-li, Xiao Ye, Yang Fei, Wang Chen-xi
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2015 Jan;26(1):260-8.
Based on meteorological data from China national weather stations and climate scenario grid data through regional climate model provided by National Climate Center, rice water requirement was calculated by using McCloud model and Penman-Monteith model combined with crop coefficient approach. Then the rice irrigation water requirement was estimated by water balance model, and the changes of rice water requirement were analyzed. The results indicated that either in historical period or in climate scenario, rice irrigation water requirement contour lines during the whole growth period and Lmid period decreased along southwest to northeast, and the same irrigation water requirement contour line moved north with decade alternation. Rice irrigation water requirement during the whole growth period increased fluctuantly with decade alternation at 44.2 mm . 10 a-1 in historical period and 19.9 mm . 10 a-1 in climate scenario. The increase in rice irrigation water requirement during the Lmid period with decade alternation was significant in historical period, but not significant in climate scenario. Contribution rate of climate change to rice irrigation water requirement would be fluctuantly increased with decade alternation in climate scenario. Compared with 1970s, contribution rates of climate change to rice irrigation water requirement were 23.6% in 2000s and 34.4% in 2040s, which increased 14.8 x 10(8) m3 irrigation water in 2000s and would increase 21.2 x 10(8) m3 irrigation water in 2040s.
基于中国国家气象站的气象数据以及国家气候中心通过区域气候模型提供的气候情景网格数据，采用麦克劳德模型和彭曼-蒙特斯模型结合作物系数法计算水稻需水量。然后利用水平衡模型估算水稻灌溉需水量，并分析水稻需水量的变化。结果表明，无论是在历史时期还是在气候情景下，整个生育期和生育中期的水稻灌溉需水量等值线均沿西南向东北递减，且相同灌溉需水量等值线随年代交替向北移动。在历史时期，整个生育期的水稻灌溉需水量随年代交替波动增加，为44.2毫米·10年-1，在气候情景下为19.9毫米·10年-1。生育中期的水稻灌溉需水量在历史时期随年代交替增加显著，但在气候情景下不显著。在气候情景下，气候变化对水稻灌溉需水量的贡献率将随年代交替波动增加。与20世纪70年代相比，气候变化对水稻灌溉需水量的贡献率在21世纪为23.6%，在2040年代为34.4%，21世纪增加了14.8×108立方米灌溉水量，2040年代将增加21.2×108立方米灌溉水量。
