Morss Rebecca E, Demuth Julie L, Bostrom Ann, Lazo Jeffrey K, Lazrus Heather
Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Risk Anal. 2015 Nov;35(11):2009-28. doi: 10.1111/risa.12403. Epub 2015 May 19.
Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision-focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals' perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others' decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system-wide management of uncertainty in decisions.
及时的预警沟通和决策对于减少山洪暴发造成的危害至关重要。为了帮助理解和改善极端天气风险沟通与管理，本研究采用心理模型研究方法来调查山洪预警系统及其风险决策背景。数据收集于科罗拉多州博尔德地区，通过对预报员、政府官员和媒体广播员进行心理模型访谈（他们在预警系统中各自做出重要的相互作用决策）以及与预报员进行小组建模会议来获取。对数据的分析为开发一个以决策为重点的山洪预警系统模型提供了依据，该模型整合了专业人员的观点。将个人和小组数据与该模型进行比较分析，刻画了这些专业人员如何概念化山洪风险及相关不确定性；如何创建和传播山洪预警信息；以及如何看待预警信息在他们自己和他人决策中（以及应该如何）被使用。分析表明，预警系统的有效运作将受益于专业人员在其专业领域和工作角色范围内，对山洪风险和预警系统形成更清晰、共享的理解。鉴于在诸如山洪暴发等复杂、快速演变的灾害的风险沟通和决策方面存在挑战，另一个优先事项是开发改进的预警内容，以帮助公众在需要时保护自己。同样重要的是与公众就管理山洪风险的责任分配进行专业沟通，以及改进全系统决策中的不确定性管理。
