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弗吉尼亚州西南部的山洪暴发预警

Flash flood awareness in southwest Virginia.

作者信息

Knocke Ethan T, Kolivras Korine N

机构信息

AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA 16803, USA.

出版信息

Risk Anal. 2007 Feb;27(1):155-69. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00866.x.

Abstract

Flash floods are one of the most dangerous weather-related natural disasters in the world. These events develop less than six hours after a rainfall event and create hazardous situations for people and extensive damage to property. It is critical for flash flood conditions to be warned of in a timely manner to minimize impacts. There is currently a knowledge gap between flood experts and the general public about the level of perceived risk that the latter has toward the powerful flood waters and how events should be warned of, which affects the communication capabilities and efficiency of the warning process. Prior research has addressed risk perception of natural disasters, but there is little emphasis on flash floods within flood-prone regions of the United States. This research utilizes an online survey of 300 respondents to determine the current state of flash flood awareness and preparation in southwest Virginia. Analysis of trends involved the use of chi-squared tests (chi2) and simple frequency and percentage calculations. Results reveal that a knowledge base of flash floods does exist, but is not advanced enough for proper awareness. Young adults have a lower understanding and are not as concerned about flood impacts. Increased exposure and perceived risk play a key role in shaping the way a person approaches flash floods. People do monitor flood events, but they are unaware of essential guidance and communication mechanisms. Finally, results suggest that the current method of warning about flash floods is not provided at an appropriate level of detail for effective communication.

摘要

山洪暴发是世界上与天气相关的最危险的自然灾害之一。这些事件在降雨事件发生后不到六小时就会形成,给人们带来危险的情况,并对财产造成广泛破坏。及时发出山洪暴发预警以尽量减少影响至关重要。目前,洪水专家和普通公众之间在后者对强大洪水的感知风险水平以及应如何发出事件预警方面存在知识差距,这影响了预警过程的沟通能力和效率。先前的研究已经探讨了对自然灾害的风险认知,但在美国洪水易发地区,很少有人关注山洪暴发。本研究通过对300名受访者进行在线调查,以确定弗吉尼亚州西南部当前对山洪暴发的认知和准备情况。趋势分析涉及使用卡方检验(chi2)以及简单的频率和百分比计算。结果显示,确实存在关于山洪暴发的知识库,但对于适当的认知来说还不够完善。年轻人的理解程度较低,对洪水影响的关注也较少。增加的接触和感知风险在塑造人们应对山洪暴发的方式方面起着关键作用。人们确实会关注洪水事件,但他们不知道基本的指导和沟通机制。最后,结果表明,目前关于山洪暴发的预警方法在细节程度上不足以进行有效的沟通。

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