Chau Pui Hing, Woo Jean
School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
PLoS One. 2015 May 20;10(5):e0126774. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0126774. eCollection 2015.
While there is literature on excess winter mortality, there are few studies examining the evolution of its trend which may be changing in parallel with global warming. This study aimed to examine the trend in the excess mortality in winter as compared to summer among the older population in a sub-tropical city and to explore its association with extreme weather. We used a retrospective study based on the registered deaths among the older population in Hong Kong during 1976-2010. An Excess Mortality for Winter versus Summer (EMWS) Index was used to quantify the excess number of deaths in winter compared to summer. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyze the trends and its association with extreme weather. Overall, the EMWS Index for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, chronic lower respiratory diseases, pneumonia, and other causes were 43.0%, 34.2%, 42.7%, 23.4% and 17.6%, respectively. Significant decline was observed in the EMWS Index for chronic lower respiratory diseases and other causes. The trend in the index for cerebrovascular diseases depended on the age group, with older groups showing a decline but younger groups not showing any trend. Meteorological variables, in terms of extreme weather, were associated with the trends in the EMWS Index. We concluded that shrinking excess winter mortality from cerebrovascular diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases was found in a sub-tropical city. These trends were associated with extreme weather, which coincided with global warming.
虽然有关于冬季超额死亡率的文献，但很少有研究考察其趋势的演变，而这种趋势可能正随着全球变暖而发生变化。本研究旨在考察亚热带城市老年人口中冬季与夏季相比的超额死亡率趋势，并探讨其与极端天气的关联。我们采用了一项基于1976 - 2010年香港老年人口登记死亡数据的回顾性研究。使用冬季与夏季超额死亡率（EMWS）指数来量化冬季相较于夏季的超额死亡人数。采用多元线性回归分析趋势及其与极端天气的关联。总体而言，缺血性心脏病、脑血管疾病、慢性下呼吸道疾病、肺炎及其他病因的EMWS指数分别为43.0%、34.2%、42.7%、23.4%和17.6%。观察到慢性下呼吸道疾病和其他病因的EMWS指数显著下降。脑血管疾病指数的趋势取决于年龄组，老年组呈下降趋势，而年轻组未显示出任何趋势。就极端天气而言，气象变量与EMWS指数的趋势相关。我们得出结论，在一个亚热带城市中发现脑血管疾病和慢性下呼吸道疾病的冬季超额死亡率在下降。这些趋势与极端天气相关，而极端天气与全球变暖相符。
