De Lorenzo R A, Gray B C, Bennett P C, Lamparella V J
Albany Medical College, New York.
J Emerg Med. 1989 Jul-Aug;7(4):379-84. doi: 10.1016/0736-4679(89)90310-7.
A prediction of patient volume expected at "mass gatherings" is desirable in order to provide optimal on-site emergency medical care. While several methods of predicting patient loads have been suggested, a reliable technique has not been established. This study examines the frequency of medical emergencies at the Syracuse University Carrier Dome, a 50,500-seat indoor stadium. Patient volume and level of care at collegiate basketball and football games as well as rock concerts, over a 7-year period were examined and tabulated. This information was analyzed using simple regression and nonparametric statistical methods to determine level of correlation between crowd size and patient volume. These analyses demonstrated no statistically significant increase in patient volume for increasing crowd size for basketball and football events. There was a small but statistically significant increase in patient volume for increasing crowd size for concerts. A comparison of similar crowd size for each of the three events showed that patient frequency is greatest for concerts and smallest for basketball. The study suggests that crowd size alone has only a minor influence on patient volume at any given event. Structuring medical services based solely on expected crowd size and not considering other influences such as event type and duration may give poor results.
为了提供最佳的现场紧急医疗护理，预测“大型集会”时的患者数量是很有必要的。虽然已经提出了几种预测患者负荷的方法，但尚未建立可靠的技术。本研究调查了锡拉丘兹大学穹顶体育馆（一个有50,500个座位的室内体育场）的医疗紧急情况发生频率。对7年期间大学篮球和足球比赛以及摇滚音乐会的患者数量和护理水平进行了检查并制成表格。使用简单回归和非参数统计方法对这些信息进行分析，以确定人群规模与患者数量之间的相关程度。这些分析表明，对于篮球和足球赛事，人群规模增加时患者数量没有统计学上的显著增加。对于音乐会，人群规模增加时患者数量有小幅但统计学上显著的增加。对这三项活动中相似人群规模的比较表明，音乐会的患者频率最高，篮球的患者频率最低。该研究表明，在任何特定活动中，仅人群规模对患者数量的影响较小。仅根据预期人群规模构建医疗服务而不考虑其他影响因素（如活动类型和持续时间）可能会导致效果不佳。
