Undeman Emma, Gustafsson Bo G, Humborg Christoph, McLachlan Michael S
Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden,
Ambio. 2015 Jun;44 Suppl 3(Suppl 3):498-506. doi: 10.1007/s13280-015-0668-2.
Organic contaminants constitute one of many stressors that deteriorate the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. When managing environmental problems in this marine environment, it may be necessary to consider the interactions between various stressors to ensure that averting one problem does not exacerbate another. A novel modeling tool, BALTSEM-POP, is presented here that simulates interactions between climate forcing, hydrodynamic conditions, and water exchange, biogeochemical cycling, and organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea. We discuss opportunities to use the model to support different aspects of chemicals management. We exemplify these opportunities with a case study where two emission-reduction strategies for a chemical used in personal care products (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) are evaluated, and where the confounding influence of future climate change and eutrophication on the impact of the emission-reduction strategies are assessed.
有机污染物是导致波罗的海生态状况恶化的众多压力源之一。在管理这片海洋环境中的环境问题时，可能有必要考虑各种压力源之间的相互作用，以确保解决一个问题不会加剧另一个问题。本文介绍了一种新型建模工具BALTSEM-POP，它可以模拟气候强迫、水动力条件、水交换、生物地球化学循环以及波罗的海有机污染物的迁移和归宿之间的相互作用。我们讨论了使用该模型支持化学品管理不同方面的机会。我们通过一个案例研究来举例说明这些机会，在该案例中评估了个人护理产品中使用的一种化学品（十甲基环五硅氧烷）的两种减排策略，并评估了未来气候变化和富营养化对减排策略影响的混杂作用。
