CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Norway.
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway.
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Nov 1;532:61-9. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.106. Epub 2015 Jun 6.
Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative.
经济评估太阳能辐射管理（SRM）通常假设温度将稳定，没有气候变化的经济影响，但可能有副作用。然而，我们从气候模型实验中知道，与排放控制不同，温度、降水和风向条件的时空分布将会改变。因此，即使不考虑与气候响应无关的副作用，SRM 也可能对全球平均温度稳定产生经济后果。本文探讨了实施两种 SRM 技术的经济影响：平流层硫注入和海洋云增亮。我们使用可计算一般均衡模型，根据两个地球系统模型 MPI-ESM 和 NorESM 的结果来估计气候响应的经济影响。我们发现，在温室气体浓度中等增加的路径 RCP4.5 下，实施气候工程的经济效益很小，甚至可能为负。在四个实验中的三个实验中，全球 GDP 增加，并且所有实验都包括气候工程效益为负的地区。
