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气候计量经济学模型表明,太阳地球工程将减少国家间的收入不平等。

Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality.

机构信息

School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, USA.

School of Economics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2020 Jan 13;11(1):227. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13957-x.

Abstract

Exploring heterogeneity in the economic impacts of solar geoengineering is a fundamental step towards understanding the risk tradeoff associated with a geoengineering option. To evaluate impacts of solar geoengineering and greenhouse gas-driven climate change on equal terms, we apply macroeconomic impact models that have been widely applied to climate change impacts assessment. Combining historical evidence with climate simulations of mean annual temperature and precipitation, we project socio-economic outcomes under high anthropogenic emissions for stylized climate scenarios in which global temperatures are stabilized or over-cooled by blocking solar radiation. We find impacts of climate changes on global GDP-per-capita by the end of the century are temperature-driven, highly dispersed, and model dependent. Across all model specifications, however, income inequality between countries is lower with solar geoengineering. Consistent reduction in inter-country inequality can inform discussions of the distribution of impacts of solar geoengineering, a topic of concern in geoengineering ethics and governance debates.

摘要

探索太阳地球工程经济影响的异质性是理解与地球工程选项相关的风险权衡的基本步骤。为了在同等条件下评估太阳地球工程和温室气体驱动的气候变化的影响,我们应用了已广泛应用于气候变化影响评估的宏观经济影响模型。我们结合历史证据和平均年温度和降水的气候模拟,在通过阻挡太阳辐射稳定或过度冷却全球温度的理想化气候情景下,预测高人为排放下的社会经济结果。我们发现,到本世纪末,气候变化对全球人均 GDP 的影响是由温度驱动的,高度分散,且取决于模型。然而,在所有模型规格中,与没有地球工程相比,地球工程会降低国家间的收入不平等。一致减少国家间的不平等可以为太阳地球工程影响的分配提供信息,这是地球工程伦理和治理辩论中关注的一个话题。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0080/6957473/076003826a55/41467_2019_13957_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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