Narenpitak Pornampai, Kongkulsiri Siriwat, Tomkratoke Saifhon, Sirisup Sirod
Data-Driven Simulation and Systems Research Team, National Electronics and Computer Technology Center, National Science and Technology Development Agency, Khlong Luang, Pathum Thani, 12120, Thailand.
Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 30;14(1):22713. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-73149-6.
Solar radiation modification (SRM) has been proposed to temporarily reduce anthropogenic warming. This study presents an assessment of the regional impacts of SRM via solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on temperature and precipitation over 0°-30° N and 90° E-110° E, covering Mainland Southeast Asia and adjacent oceans. Using data from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6), we examine regional impacts of SRM using three SRM experiments: (1) G6Sulfur, which reduces radiative forcing from the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario to the moderate-emission SSP2-4.5 scenario by injecting sulfate aerosols; (2) G6Solar, which similarly reduces radiative forcing from the high-emission to moderate-emission scenarios but by uniformly reducing the solar constant; and (3) G1ext, which reduces radiative forcing from a quadrupled carbon dioxide concentration to pre-industrial levels by uniform solar constant reduction. Our findings show that higher greenhouse gas emissions increase overall precipitation, along with tendencies to have extreme rainfall events and more dry episodes in between. While SRM can partially cool down the surface temperature warming caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, its effects on precipitation are complex: Solar dimming in G6Solar and G1ext tends to reduce overall precipitation, and tropical sulfate injection in G6Sulfur could lead to further drying in the tropics because of the stratospheric warming associated with the injected aerosols. Different SRM strategies might result in different responses on precipitation.
太阳辐射改造（SRM）已被提议用于暂时减少人为变暖。本研究评估了通过太阳变暗和平流层气溶胶注入（SAI）进行的SRM对北纬0°至30°和东经90°至110°区域（涵盖东南亚大陆及邻近海洋）的温度和降水的影响。利用地球工程模型比较计划第六阶段（GeoMIP6）的数据，我们通过三个SRM实验研究了SRM的区域影响：（1）G6Sulfur，通过注入硫酸盐气溶胶将高排放情景SSP5-8.5的辐射强迫降低到中等排放情景SSP2-4.5；（2）G6Solar，同样将高排放情景到中等排放情景的辐射强迫降低，但通过均匀降低太阳常数来实现；（3）G1ext，通过均匀降低太阳常数将四倍二氧化碳浓度的辐射强迫降低到工业化前水平。我们的研究结果表明，更高的温室气体排放会增加总体降水量，同时伴随着极端降雨事件增多以及其间更多干旱期的趋势。虽然SRM可以部分缓解因温室气体排放增加导致的地表温度上升，但其对降水的影响较为复杂：G6Solar和G1ext中的太阳变暗往往会减少总体降水量，而G6Sulfur中的热带硫酸盐注入由于与注入气溶胶相关的平流层变暖可能导致热带地区进一步干燥。不同的SRM策略可能会导致对降水的不同响应。
