Giannini Tereza C, Tambosi Leandro R, Acosta André L, Jaffé Rodolfo, Saraiva Antonio M, Imperatriz-Fonseca Vera L, Metzger Jean Paul
Department of Ecology, Institute of Bioscience, University of Sao Paulo (USP), R. do Matao 321, 05508-090, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; Computation and Digital Systems, Engineering School, University of Sao Paulo (USP), Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto 380, 05508-010, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; Vale Institute of Technology Sustainable Development, Rua Boaventura da Silva 955, 66055-090, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
Department of Ecology, Institute of Bioscience, University of Sao Paulo (USP), R. do Matao 321, 05508-090, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2015 Jun 19;10(6):e0129225. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0129225. eCollection 2015.
Ecosystem services provided by mobile agents are increasingly threatened by the loss and modification of natural habitats and by climate change, risking the maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human welfare. Research oriented towards a better understanding of the joint effects of land use and climate change over the provision of specific ecosystem services is therefore essential to safeguard such services. Here we propose a methodological framework, which integrates species distribution forecasts and graph theory to identify key conservation areas, which if protected or restored could improve habitat connectivity and safeguard ecosystem services. We applied the proposed framework to the provision of pollination services by a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata), a key pollinator of native flora from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and important agricultural crops. Based on the current distribution of this bee and that of the plant species used to feed and nest, we projected the joint distribution of bees and plants in the future, considering a moderate climate change scenario (following IPPC). We then used this information, the bee's flight range, and the current mapping of Atlantic Forest remnants to infer habitat suitability and quantify local and regional habitat connectivity for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Our results revealed north to south and coastal to inland shifts in the pollinator distribution during the next 70 years. Current and future connectivity maps unraveled the most important corridors, which if protected or restored, could facilitate the dispersal and establishment of bees during distribution shifts. Our results also suggest that coffee plantations from eastern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais States could suffer a pollinator deficit in the future, whereas pollination services seem to be secured in southern Brazil. Landowners and governmental agencies could use this information to implement new land use schemes. Overall, our proposed methodological framework could help design novel conservational and agricultural practices that can be crucial to conserve ecosystem services by buffering the joint effect of habitat configuration and climate change.
移动生物提供的生态系统服务正日益受到自然栖息地丧失和改变以及气候变化的威胁，这危及生物多样性、生态系统功能和人类福祉的维持。因此，开展旨在更好地理解土地利用和气候变化对特定生态系统服务供应的共同影响的研究，对于保障此类服务至关重要。在此，我们提出一个方法框架，该框架整合了物种分布预测和图论，以识别关键保护区，若对这些区域进行保护或恢复，可改善栖息地连通性并保障生态系统服务。我们将所提出的框架应用于热带无刺蜂（Melipona quadrifasciata）提供的授粉服务，这种蜜蜂是巴西大西洋森林本土植物群以及重要农作物的关键传粉者。基于这种蜜蜂以及用于觅食和筑巢的植物物种的当前分布，我们考虑中等气候变化情景（遵循政府间气候变化专门委员会），预测了未来蜜蜂和植物的联合分布。然后，我们利用这些信息、蜜蜂的飞行范围以及大西洋森林残余地的当前地图，推断2030年、2050年和2080年的栖息地适宜性，并量化当地和区域的栖息地连通性。我们的结果显示，在未来70年里传粉者分布将出现从北到南以及从沿海到内陆的转移。当前和未来的连通性地图揭示了最重要的走廊，若对这些走廊进行保护或恢复，可在分布转移期间促进蜜蜂的扩散和定居。我们的结果还表明，圣保罗东部和米纳斯吉拉斯州南部的咖啡种植园未来可能面临传粉者短缺，而巴西南部的授粉服务似乎能够得到保障。土地所有者和政府机构可利用这些信息来实施新的土地利用方案。总体而言，我们提出的方法框架有助于设计新的保护和农业实践，这些实践对于通过缓冲栖息地格局和气候变化的联合影响来保护生态系统服务可能至关重要。
