Maia Ulysses Madureira, Miranda Leonardo de Sousa, Carvalho Airton Torres, Imperatriz-Fonseca Vera Lucia, de Oliveira Guilherme Corrêa, Giannini Tereza Cristina
Instituto de Ciências Biológicas Universidade Federal do Pará Belém Brazil.
Instituto Tecnológico Vale Belém Brazil.
Ecol Evol. 2020 Aug 20;10(18):10130-10138. doi: 10.1002/ece3.6674. eCollection 2020 Sep.
The objective of this study is to estimate the current potential geographic distribution of and to evaluate the influence of climate on the dynamics of suitable habitat availability in the past and in the future.
Northeast region of Brazil and dry forest areas.
The habitat suitability modeling was based on two algorithms, two global circulation models, and six different scenarios. We used this tool to estimate the areas of occurrence in the past (Last Interglacial and Last Glacial Maximum), in the present, and in the future (years 2050 and 2070).
According to the models, had great dynamics in the availability of suitable habitats with periods of retraction and expansion of these areas in the past. Our results suggest that this taxon may benefit in terms of climate suitability gain in Northeast Brazil in the future. In addition, we identified high-altitude areas and the eastern coast as climatically stable.
The information provided can be used by decision makers to support actions toward protecting and sustainably managing this taxon. Protection measures for this taxon are particularly important because this insect contributes to the local flora and, although our results indicate that the climate may favor this taxon, other factors can negatively affect it, such as high levels of habitat loss due to anthropogenic activities.
本研究的目的是估计当前的潜在地理分布，并评估气候对过去和未来适宜栖息地可用性动态变化的影响。
巴西东北部地区和干旱森林地区。
栖息地适宜性建模基于两种算法、两个全球环流模型和六种不同情景。我们使用该工具来估计过去（末次间冰期和末次盛冰期）、当前以及未来（2050年和2070年）的出现区域。
根据模型，在过去，适宜栖息地的可用性具有很大的动态变化，这些区域有收缩和扩张的时期。我们的结果表明，该分类单元未来在巴西东北部可能会在气候适宜性增加方面受益。此外，我们确定了高海拔地区和东部海岸气候稳定。
提供的信息可供决策者用于支持保护和可持续管理该分类单元的行动。对该分类单元的保护措施尤为重要，因为这种昆虫对当地植物群有贡献，尽管我们的结果表明气候可能有利于该分类单元，但其他因素可能会对其产生负面影响，例如人为活动导致的高水平栖息地丧失。
