Tamborini Christopher R, Kim ChangHwan, Sakamoto Arthur
Office of Retirement Policy, U.S. Social Security Administration, 500 E. Street, SW, 9th floor, Washington, DC, 20254, USA.
Demography. 2015 Aug;52(4):1383-407. doi: 10.1007/s13524-015-0407-0.
Differences in lifetime earnings by educational attainment have been of great research and policy interest. Although a large literature examines earnings differences by educational attainment, research on lifetime earnings--which refers to total accumulated earnings from entry into the labor market until retirement--remains limited because of the paucity of adequate data. Using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal tax earnings as recorded by the Social Security Administration, we estimate the 50-year work career effects of education on lifetime earnings for men and women. By overcoming the purely synthetic cohort approach, our results provide a more realistic appraisal of actual patterns of lifetime earnings. Detailed estimates are provided for gross lifetime earnings by education; net lifetime earnings after controlling for covariates associated with the probability of obtaining a bachelor's degree; and the net present 50-year lifetime value of education at age 20. In addition, we provide estimates that include individuals with zero earnings and disability. We also assess the adequacy of the purely synthetic cohort approach, which uses age differences in earnings observed in cross-sectional surveys to approximate lifetime earnings. Overall, our results confirm the persistent positive effects of higher education on earnings over different stages of the work career and over a lifetime, but also reveal notably smaller net effects on lifetime earnings compared with previously reported estimates. We discuss the implications of these and other findings.
不同教育程度的终生收入差异一直是研究和政策关注的重点。尽管有大量文献研究了教育程度导致的收入差异,但由于缺乏足够的数据,关于终生收入(指从进入劳动力市场到退休期间累计的总收入)的研究仍然有限。利用将收入与计划参与调查中的受访者与其社会保障管理局记录的纵向税收收入相匹配的数据,我们估计了教育对男性和女性终生收入的50年工作生涯影响。通过克服纯粹的合成队列方法,我们的结果对实际的终生收入模式提供了更现实的评估。我们提供了按教育程度划分的终生总收入的详细估计;控制与获得学士学位概率相关的协变量后的终生净收入;以及20岁时教育的50年净现值。此外,我们还提供了包括零收入和残疾个体的估计。我们还评估了纯粹合成队列方法的充分性,该方法利用横断面调查中观察到的收入年龄差异来近似终生收入。总体而言,我们的结果证实了高等教育在工作生涯不同阶段和一生中对收入持续产生积极影响,但与之前报告的估计相比,也显示出对终生收入的净影响明显较小。我们讨论了这些及其他发现的意义。