赛马的速度越来越快。
Racehorses are getting faster.
作者信息
Sharman Patrick, Wilson Alastair J
机构信息
Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK.
出版信息
Biol Lett. 2015 Jun;11(6):20150310. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2015.0310.
Previous studies have concluded that thoroughbred racehorse speed is improving very slowly, if at all, despite heritable variation for performance and putatively intensive selective breeding. This has led to the suggestion that racehorses have reached a selection limit. However, previous studies have been limited, focusing only on the winning times of a few elite races run over middle and long distances, and failing to account for potentially confounding factors. Using a much larger dataset covering the full range of race distances and accounting for variation in factors such as ground softness, we show that improvement is, in fact, ongoing for the population as a whole, but driven largely by increasing speed in sprint races. In contrast, speed over middle and long distances, at least at the elite level, appears to be reaching an asymptote. Whether this reflects a selection limit to speed over middle and long distances or a shift in breeding practices to target sprint performances remains to be determined.
此前的研究得出结论，尽管纯种赛马的表现存在可遗传变异，且假定进行了高强度的选择性育种，但它们的速度提升非常缓慢，甚至根本没有提升。这引发了一种观点，即赛马已经达到了选择极限。然而，此前的研究存在局限性，仅关注了少数中长跑精英赛事的获胜时间，且未能考虑潜在的混杂因素。使用一个更大的数据集，涵盖了所有赛程距离，并考虑了地面软硬度等因素的变化，我们发现，事实上，整个种群的速度仍在提升，但主要是由短跑赛事速度的提高所驱动。相比之下，中长跑的速度，至少在精英水平上，似乎正在趋于平稳。这究竟是反映了中长跑速度的选择极限，还是育种实践转向以短跑表现为目标，仍有待确定。
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