Zayeri F, Talebi Ghane E, Borumandnia N
Department of Biostatistics,Faculty of Paramedical Sciences,Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences,Tehran,Iran.
Epidemiol Infect. 2016 Feb;144(3):548-55. doi: 10.1017/S0950268815001351. Epub 2015 Jul 6.
Over the last 30 years, HIV/AIDS has emerged as a major global health challenge. This study evaluates the change of HIV/AIDS mortality rates in Asian and North African countries from 1990 to 2010 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. HIV/AIDS mortality rates were derived from the GBD database from 1990 to 2010, for 52 countries in Asia and North Africa. First, a Latent Growth Model was employed to assess the change in AIDS mortality rate over time in six different regions of Asia, and also the change in AIDS mortality rate over time for males and females in Asia and North Africa. Finally, Latent Growth Mixture Models (LGMMs) were applied to identify distinct groups in which countries within each group have similar trends over time. Our results showed that increase in mortality rate over time for males is about three times greater than for females. The highest and lowest trend of AIDS mortality rates were observed in South-East Asia and high-income Asia-Pacific regions, respectively. The LGMM allocated most countries in the South and South-East region into two classes with the highest trend of AIDS mortality rates. Although the HIV/AIDS mortality rates are decreasing in some countries and clusters, the general trend in the Asian continent is upwards. Therefore, it is necessary to provide programmes to achieve the goal of access to HIV prevention measures, treatment, care, and support for high-risk groups, especially in countries with a higher trend of AIDS mortality rates.
在过去30年里，艾滋病毒/艾滋病已成为一项重大的全球卫生挑战。本研究利用全球疾病负担（GBD）研究评估了1990年至2010年期间亚洲和北非国家艾滋病毒/艾滋病死亡率的变化。艾滋病毒/艾滋病死亡率来自1990年至2010年GBD数据库中亚洲和北非的52个国家。首先，采用潜在增长模型评估亚洲六个不同地区艾滋病死亡率随时间的变化，以及亚洲和北非男性和女性艾滋病死亡率随时间的变化。最后，应用潜在增长混合模型（LGMM）来识别不同的组，其中每组内的国家随时间具有相似的趋势。我们的结果表明，男性死亡率随时间的增加约为女性的三倍。艾滋病死亡率最高和最低的趋势分别出现在东南亚和高收入亚太地区。LGMM将南部和东南部地区的大多数国家分为艾滋病死亡率趋势最高的两类。尽管一些国家和群组的艾滋病毒/艾滋病死亡率在下降，但亚洲大陆的总体趋势是上升的。因此，有必要提供相关项目，以实现高危人群获得艾滋病毒预防措施、治疗、护理和支持的目标，特别是在艾滋病死亡率趋势较高的国家。
