墨西哥的成人肥胖、疾病与长寿
Adult obesity, disease and longevity in Mexico.
作者信息
Palloni Alberto, Beltrán-Sánchez Hiram, Novak Beatriz, Pinto Guido, Wong Rebeca
机构信息
University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, Estados Unidos de América.
El Colegio de México, México, Distrito Federal, México.
出版信息
Salud Publica Mex. 2015;57 Suppl 1(0 1):S22-30. doi: 10.21149/spm.v57s1.7586.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To obtain estimates of the effects of overweight and obesity on the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and adult mortality.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
We use three waves (2000, 2002, 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Survey (MHAS).We employ parametric hazard models to estimate mortality and conventional logistic models to estimate incidence of T2D.
RESULTS
Obesity and overweight have a strong effect on the incidence of T2D;this, combined with the large impact of diabetes on adult mortality, generates increases in mortality that translate into losses of 2 to 3 years of life expectancy at age 50.
CONCLUSIONS
If increasing trends in obesity in Mexico continue as in the past, progress in adult survival may be slowed down considerably and the incidence of T2D will continue to increase.
摘要
目的
评估超重和肥胖对2型糖尿病（T2D）发病率及成人死亡率的影响。
材料与方法
我们使用了墨西哥健康与老龄化调查（MHAS）的三期数据（2000年、2002年、2012年）。我们采用参数风险模型来估计死亡率，并用传统逻辑模型来估计T2D的发病率。
结果
肥胖和超重对T2D的发病率有显著影响；再加上糖尿病对成人死亡率的巨大影响，导致死亡率上升，这意味着50岁时预期寿命损失2至3年。
结论
如果墨西哥肥胖率继续像过去那样呈上升趋势，成人存活率的进步可能会大幅放缓，T2D的发病率将持续上升。
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