墨西哥缺乏身体活动导致的心血管病和糖尿病负担。
Cardiovascular and diabetes burden attributable to physical inactivity in Mexico.
机构信息
Department of Physical Activity and Healthy Lifestyles, Center for Nutrition and Health Research, National Institute of Public Health, Mexico City, Mexico.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Center for Vulnerable Populations, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
出版信息
Cardiovasc Diabetol. 2020 Jun 29;19(1):99. doi: 10.1186/s12933-020-01050-3.
BACKGROUND
Physical inactivity (PI) is associated with the development of non-communicable chronic diseases. The purposes of this study were to estimate the extent to which the 31% relative increase in PI among 35-64 years old Mexicans between 2006 and 2012 influenced diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality, and to estimate the impact of the World Health Organization recommended 10% and 15% relative decrease in PI on CVD and T2D incidence and mortality by 2025 and 2030, respectively.
METHODS
Estimates were derived using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a computer simulation, Markov model. Model inputs included cross-national data on PI levels from 2006 and 2012 measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire and the published literature review on the independent relationship between PI and cardiometabolic risk.
RESULTS
The models estimated that the 31% increase in PI resulted in an increase in the number of cases of T2D (27,100), coronary heart disease (10,300), stroke (2200), myocardial infarction (1500), stroke deaths (400) and coronary heart disease deaths (350). A hypothetical 10% lowering of PI by 2025 compared to status quo is projected to prevent 8400 cases of T2D, 4200 cases of CHD, 1000 cases of stroke, 700 cases of MI, and 200 deaths of CHD and stroke, respectively. A 15% reduction resulted in larger decreases.
CONCLUSIONS
While the burden of T2D and CVD raised from 2006 to 2012 in association with increased PI, achieving the WHO targets by 2030 could help reverse these trends.
背景
身体活动不足（PI）与非传染性慢性病的发展有关。本研究的目的是估计 2006 年至 2012 年间 35-64 岁墨西哥人 PI 相对增加 31%对糖尿病（T2D）和心血管疾病（CVD）发病率和死亡率的影响，并估计到 2025 年和 2030 年，世界卫生组织建议的 PI 减少 10%和 15%分别对 CVD 和 T2D 发病率和死亡率的影响。
方法
使用心血管疾病政策模型-墨西哥，一种计算机模拟，马尔可夫模型，来估计。模型输入包括 2006 年和 2012 年使用国际体力活动问卷测量的 PI 水平的跨国数据，以及关于 PI 与心血管代谢风险之间独立关系的已发表文献综述。
结果
模型估计，PI 增加 31%导致 T2D（27100 例）、冠心病（10300 例）、中风（2200 例）、心肌梗死（1500 例）、中风死亡（400 例）和冠心病死亡（350 例）的病例数增加。与现状相比，假设到 2025 年 PI 降低 10%，预计将预防 8400 例 T2D、4200 例 CHD、1000 例中风、700 例心肌梗死和 200 例 CHD 和中风死亡。减少 15%则会产生更大的降幅。
结论
虽然 2006 年至 2012 年期间，PI 增加导致 T2D 和 CVD 的负担增加，但到 2030 年实现世卫组织的目标可能有助于扭转这些趋势。
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