Van Cauteren Dieter, De Valk Henriette, Sommen Cecile, King Lisa A, Jourdan-Da Silva Nathalie, Weill François-Xavier, Le Hello Simon, Mégraud Francis, Vaillant Veronique, Desenclos Jean C
1 Department of Infectious Diseases, French Institute for Public Health Surveillance , Saint Maurice, France .
2 Institut Pasteur , National Reference Centre for Salmonella, Unité des Bactéries Pathogènes Entériques, Paris, France .
Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2015 Aug;12(8):664-9. doi: 10.1089/fpd.2015.1964. Epub 2015 Jul 20.
Community incidence estimates are necessary to assess the burden and impact of infections on health and to set priorities for surveillance, research, prevention, and control strategies. The current study was performed to estimate the community incidence of campylobacteriosis and nontyphoidal salmonellosis in France from the number of laboratory-confirmed cases reported to the national reference center (NRC). The probabilities of a case in the community visiting a doctor, having a stool sample requested, having a positive laboratory test, and having the case reported to the NRC were estimated using data of national surveillance systems, national hospitalization and health insurance databases, and specific surveys informing about these parameters. Credible intervals (CrI) were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, we estimated the number of hospitalizations for both infections in France. The annual community incidence rate in France is estimated at 842 cases per 100,000 (90%CrI 525-1690) for campylobacteriosis and 307 cases per 100,000 (90%CrI 173-611) for salmonellosis. The annual number of hospitalizations is estimated at 5182 for campylobacteriosis and 4305 for salmonellosis. The multiplication factors between cases ascertained by the surveillance system and cases in the community were 115 for campylobacteriosis and 20 for salmonellosis. They are consistent with estimates reported in other countries, indicating a high community incidence of campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis in France.
估计社区发病率对于评估感染对健康的负担和影响以及确定监测、研究、预防和控制策略的重点至关重要。本研究旨在根据向国家参考中心（NRC）报告的实验室确诊病例数，估计法国弯曲菌病和非伤寒沙门氏菌病的社区发病率。利用国家监测系统、国家住院和医疗保险数据库的数据以及关于这些参数的具体调查，估计社区中病例就诊、被要求采集粪便样本、实验室检测呈阳性以及病例报告给NRC的概率。使用蒙特卡洛模拟计算可信区间（CrI）。此外，我们还估计了法国这两种感染的住院人数。法国弯曲菌病的年社区发病率估计为每10万人842例（90%CrI 525 - 1690），沙门氏菌病为每10万人307例（90%CrI 173 - 611）。弯曲菌病的年住院人数估计为5182例，沙门氏菌病为4305例。监测系统确定的病例数与社区病例数之间的相乘因子，弯曲菌病为115，沙门氏菌病为20。它们与其他国家报告的估计值一致，表明法国弯曲菌病和沙门氏菌病的社区发病率很高。
