Casnici Niccolò, Dondio Pierpaolo, Casarin Roberto, Squazzoni Flaminio
Department of Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy.
School of Computing, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin, Ireland.
PLoS One. 2015 Aug 5;10(8):e0133712. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0133712. eCollection 2015.
This paper looks at 800,000 messages on the Unicredit stock, exchanged by 7,500 investors in the Finanzaonline.com forum, between 2005 and 2012 and measured collective interpretations of stock market trends. We examined the correlation patterns between market uncertainty, bad news and investors' network structure by measuring the investors' communication patterns. Our results showed that the investors' network reacted to market trends in different ways: While less turbulent market phases implied less communication, higher market volatility generated more complex communication patterns. While the information content of messages was less technical in situations of uncertainty, bad news caused more informative messages only when market volatility was lower. This meant that bad news had a different impact on network behaviour, depending on market uncertainty. By measuring the investors' expertise, we found that their behaviour could help predict changes in daily stock returns. We also found that expert investors were more influential in communication processes during high volatility market phases, whereas they had less influence on the real-time forum's reaction after bad news. Our findings confirm the crucial role of e-communication platforms. However, they also show the need to reconsider the fragility of these collective intelligence systems when under external shocks.
本文研究了2005年至2012年间,在Finanzaonline.com论坛上7500名投资者就裕信银行股票所交换的80万条信息,并衡量了对股市趋势的集体解读。我们通过测量投资者的交流模式,研究了市场不确定性、坏消息与投资者网络结构之间的关联模式。我们的结果表明,投资者网络对市场趋势的反应方式各异:市场波动较小的阶段意味着交流较少,而市场波动性较高则会产生更复杂的交流模式。在不确定性情况下,信息的技术含量较低,而坏消息仅在市场波动性较低时才会引发更多信息丰富的消息。这意味着,取决于市场不确定性,坏消息对网络行为有着不同的影响。通过衡量投资者的专业程度,我们发现他们的行为有助于预测每日股票回报的变化。我们还发现,在市场波动性较高的阶段,专业投资者在交流过程中更具影响力,而在坏消息出现后,他们对实时论坛反应的影响较小。我们的研究结果证实了电子通信平台的关键作用。然而,这些结果也表明,在受到外部冲击时,需要重新审视这些集体智慧系统的脆弱性。