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全球网络风险及其应对。

Globally networked risks and how to respond.

机构信息

ETH Zurich, Clausiusstrasse 50, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.

出版信息

Nature. 2013 May 2;497(7447):51-9. doi: 10.1038/nature12047.

Abstract

Today's strongly connected, global networks have produced highly interdependent systems that we do not understand and cannot control well. These systems are vulnerable to failure at all scales, posing serious threats to society, even when external shocks are absent. As the complexity and interaction strengths in our networked world increase, man-made systems can become unstable, creating uncontrollable situations even when decision-makers are well-skilled, have all data and technology at their disposal, and do their best. To make these systems manageable, a fundamental redesign is needed. A 'Global Systems Science' might create the required knowledge and paradigm shift in thinking.

摘要

当今高度互联的全球化网络已产生出高度相互依存的系统,我们并不了解这些系统,也无法很好地控制它们。这些系统在各个层面都容易出现故障,即使没有外部冲击,也会对社会造成严重威胁。随着我们网络化世界中的复杂性和相互作用强度的增加,人为系统可能会变得不稳定,即使决策者技术娴熟、掌握所有数据和技术并尽力而为,也会造成无法控制的局面。为了使这些系统具有可管理性,需要进行根本性的重新设计。“全球系统科学”可能会为此提供必要的知识和思维模式转变。

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