Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems and Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Mar 29;108(13):5296-301. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1018462108. Epub 2011 Mar 14.
Successful animal systems often manage risk through synchronous behavior that spontaneously arises without leadership. In critical human systems facing risk, such as financial markets or military operations, our understanding of the benefits associated with synchronicity is nascent but promising. Building on previous work illuminating commonalities between ecological and human systems, we compare the activity patterns of individual financial traders with the simultaneous activity of other traders--an individual and spontaneous characteristic we call synchronous trading. Additionally, we examine the association of synchronous trading with individual performance and communication patterns. Analyzing empirical data on day traders' second-to-second trading and instant messaging, we find that the higher the traders' synchronous trading is, the less likely they are to lose money at the end of the day. We also find that the daily instant messaging patterns of traders are closely associated with their level of synchronous trading. This result suggests that synchronicity and vanguard technology may help traders cope with risky decisions in complex systems and may furnish unique prospects for achieving collective and individual goals.
成功的动物系统通常通过无需领导的同步行为来管理风险。在面临风险的关键人类系统中，例如金融市场或军事行动，我们对与同步性相关的好处的理解还处于起步阶段，但前景广阔。基于先前阐明生态系统和人类系统之间共性的工作，我们将单个金融交易员的活动模式与其他交易员的同时活动进行了比较——这是一种我们称之为同步交易的个体和自发特征。此外，我们还研究了同步交易与个人绩效和沟通模式之间的关联。通过分析日内交易员逐秒交易和即时通讯的实证数据，我们发现交易员的同步交易水平越高，他们在当天结束时赔钱的可能性就越小。我们还发现，交易员的日常即时通讯模式与他们的同步交易水平密切相关。这一结果表明，同步性和先锋技术可能有助于交易员应对复杂系统中的风险决策，并为实现集体和个人目标提供独特的前景。
