Beck Melissa A, Colwell Douglas D, Goater Cameron P, Kienzle Stefan W
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive, Lethbridge, AB, T1K 3 M4, Canada.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lethbridge Research Station, 5403 1st Ave South, Lethbirdge, AB, T1J 4B1, Canada.
Parasit Vectors. 2015 Aug 25;8:434. doi: 10.1186/s13071-015-1040-x.
Gastrointenstinal nematodes (GIN) present a serious challenge to the health and productivity of grazing stock around the globe. However, the epidemiology of GIN transmission remains poorly understood in northern climates. Combining use of serological diagnostics, GIS mapping technology, and geospatial statistics, we evaluated ecological covariates of spatial and temporal variability in GIN transmission among bovine calves pastured in Alberta, Canada.
Sera were collected from 1000 beef calves across Alberta, Canada over three consecutive years (2008-2010) and analyzed for presence of anti-GIN antibodies using the SVANOVIR Ostertagia osteragi-Ab ELISA kit. Using a GIS and Bayesian multivariate spatial statistics, we evaluated the degree to which variation in specific environmental covariates (e.g. moisture, humidity, temperature) was associated with variation in spatial and temporal heterogeneity in exposure to GIN (Nematodirus and other trichostrongyles, primarily Ostertagia and Cooperia).
Variation in growing degree days above a base temperature of 5 °C, humidity, air temperature, and accumulated precipitation were found to be significant predictors of broad-scale spatial and temporal variation in serum antibody concentrations. Risk model projections identified that while transmission in cattle from southeastern and northwestern Alberta was relatively low in all years, rate of GIN transmission was generally higher in the central region of Alberta.
The spatial variability in risk is attributed to higher average humidity, precipitation and moderate temperatures in the central region of Alberta in comparison with the hot, dry southeastern corner of the province and the cool, dry northwestern corner. Although more targeted sampling is needed to improve model accuracy, our projections represent an important step towards tying treatment recommendations to actual risk of infection.
胃肠道线虫(GIN)对全球放牧牲畜的健康和生产力构成严重挑战。然而,在北方气候条件下,GIN传播的流行病学仍知之甚少。我们结合使用血清学诊断、地理信息系统(GIS)绘图技术和地理空间统计方法,评估了加拿大艾伯塔省放牧的牛犊中GIN传播的时空变异性的生态协变量。
连续三年(2008 - 2010年)从加拿大艾伯塔省的1000头肉牛犊中采集血清,并使用SVANOVIR奥斯特他线虫抗体ELISA试剂盒分析抗GIN抗体的存在情况。我们使用GIS和贝叶斯多元空间统计方法,评估了特定环境协变量(如湿度、温度、降水)的变化与GIN(主要是奥斯特他线虫和古柏线虫,以及其他毛圆科线虫)暴露的时空异质性变化之间的关联程度。
发现5°C以上的生长度日、湿度、气温和累计降水量的变化是血清抗体浓度大规模时空变化的重要预测因子。风险模型预测表明,虽然艾伯塔省东南部和西北部的牛群传播率在所有年份都相对较低,但该省中部地区的GIN传播率通常较高。
风险的空间变异性归因于艾伯塔省中部地区的平均湿度、降水量较高以及温度适中,而该省东南角炎热干燥,西北角凉爽干燥。尽管需要更有针对性的采样来提高模型准确性,但我们的预测是朝着将治疗建议与实际感染风险联系起来迈出的重要一步。