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注射吸毒人群中丙型肝炎病毒传播的建模:假设、局限性及未来挑战

Modeling hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs: Assumptions, limitations and future challenges.

作者信息

Scott Nick, Hellard Margaret, McBryde Emma Sue

机构信息

a Centre for Population Health; Burnet Institute; Melbourne , VIC Australia.

b Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine ; Monash University ; Clayton , VIC Australia.

出版信息

Virulence. 2016;7(2):201-8. doi: 10.1080/21505594.2015.1085151. Epub 2015 Aug 25.


DOI:10.1080/21505594.2015.1085151
PMID:26305706
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4994822/
Abstract

The discovery of highly effective hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatments has led to discussion of elimination and intensified interest in models of HCV transmission. In developed settings, HCV disproportionally affects people who inject drugs (PWID), and models are typically used to provide an evidence base for the effectiveness of interventions such as needle and syringe programs, opioid substitution therapy and more recently treating PWID with new generation therapies to achieve specified reductions in prevalence and / or incidence. This manuscript reviews deterministic compartmental S-I, deterministic compartmental S-I-S and network-based transmission models of HCV among PWID. We detail typical assumptions made when modeling injecting risk behavior, virus transmission, treatment and re-infection and how they correspond with available evidence and empirical data.

摘要

高效丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)治疗方法的发现引发了关于消除丙肝的讨论,并增强了人们对HCV传播模型的兴趣。在发达地区,HCV对注射吸毒者(PWID)的影响尤为严重,模型通常用于为诸如针头和注射器项目、阿片类药物替代疗法等干预措施的有效性提供证据基础,以及为最近使用新一代疗法治疗PWID以实现特定的患病率和/或发病率降低提供证据基础。本文综述了PWID中HCV的确定性 compartments S-I、确定性 compartments S-I-S和基于网络的传播模型。我们详细阐述了在对注射风险行为、病毒传播、治疗和再感染进行建模时所做的典型假设,以及它们如何与现有证据和实证数据相对应。

相似文献

[1]
Modeling hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs: Assumptions, limitations and future challenges.

Virulence. 2016

[2]
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[3]
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[4]
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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
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引用本文的文献

[1]
Evaluating Montréal's harm reduction interventions for people who inject drugs: protocol for observational study and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BMJ Open. 2021-10-26

[2]
Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis.

PLoS Med. 2020-10-13

[3]
A review of network simulation models of hepatitis C virus and HIV among people who inject drugs.

Int J Drug Policy. 2021-2

[4]
Injection drug network characteristics as a predictor of injection behaviour.

Epidemiol Infect. 2019-1

[5]
The contribution of injection drug use to hepatitis C virus transmission globally, regionally, and at country level: a modelling study.

Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2019-4-10

[6]
Structural Sensitivity in HIV Modeling: A Case Study of Vaccination.

Infect Dis Model. 2017-11

[7]
Eliminating hepatitis C virus as a public health threat among HIV-positive men who have sex with men: a multi-modelling approach to understand differences in sexual risk behaviour.

J Int AIDS Soc. 2018-1

[8]
Editorial: Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics.

Virulence. 2016

本文引用的文献

[1]
The role of a hepatitis C virus vaccine: modelling the benefits alongside direct-acting antiviral treatments.

BMC Med. 2015-8-20

[2]
Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models.

Epidemics. 2015-3

[3]
Many hepatitis C reinfections that spontaneously clear may be undetected: Markov-chain Monte Carlo analysis of observational study data.

J R Soc Interface. 2015-3-6

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Hepatitis C virus treatment as prevention among injecting drug users: who should we cure first?

Addiction. 2015-6

[5]
A prophylactic hepatitis C virus vaccine: a distant peak still worth climbing.

J Hepatol. 2014-11-3

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Benefits of hepatitis C virus treatment: a balance of preventing onward transmission and re-infection.

Math Biosci. 2014-12

[7]
High-frequency drug purity and price series as tools for explaining drug trends and harms in Victoria, Australia.

Addiction. 2014-10-23

[8]
The impact of injecting networks on hepatitis C transmission and treatment in people who inject drugs.

Hepatology. 2014-10-24

[9]
The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm.

J Viral Hepat. 2014-5

[10]
Risk of transmission associated with sharing drug injecting paraphernalia: analysis of recent hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection using cross-sectional survey data.

J Viral Hepat. 2013-5-28

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