Scott Nick, Hellard Margaret, McBryde Emma Sue
a Centre for Population Health; Burnet Institute; Melbourne , VIC Australia.
b Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine ; Monash University ; Clayton , VIC Australia.
Virulence. 2016;7(2):201-8. doi: 10.1080/21505594.2015.1085151. Epub 2015 Aug 25.
The discovery of highly effective hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatments has led to discussion of elimination and intensified interest in models of HCV transmission. In developed settings, HCV disproportionally affects people who inject drugs (PWID), and models are typically used to provide an evidence base for the effectiveness of interventions such as needle and syringe programs, opioid substitution therapy and more recently treating PWID with new generation therapies to achieve specified reductions in prevalence and / or incidence. This manuscript reviews deterministic compartmental S-I, deterministic compartmental S-I-S and network-based transmission models of HCV among PWID. We detail typical assumptions made when modeling injecting risk behavior, virus transmission, treatment and re-infection and how they correspond with available evidence and empirical data.
高效丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)治疗方法的发现引发了关于消除丙肝的讨论,并增强了人们对HCV传播模型的兴趣。在发达地区,HCV对注射吸毒者(PWID)的影响尤为严重,模型通常用于为诸如针头和注射器项目、阿片类药物替代疗法等干预措施的有效性提供证据基础,以及为最近使用新一代疗法治疗PWID以实现特定的患病率和/或发病率降低提供证据基础。本文综述了PWID中HCV的确定性 compartments S-I、确定性 compartments S-I-S和基于网络的传播模型。我们详细阐述了在对注射风险行为、病毒传播、治疗和再感染进行建模时所做的典型假设,以及它们如何与现有证据和实证数据相对应。
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