Roberts Mick, Andreasen Viggo, Lloyd Alun, Pellis Lorenzo
Infectious Disease Research Centre, Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, and New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, 1311 Auckland, New Zealand.
Department of Science, Roskilde University, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark.
Epidemics. 2015 Mar;10:49-53. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.006. Epub 2014 Sep 27.
Deterministic models have a long history of being applied to the study of infectious disease epidemiology. We highlight and discuss nine challenges in this area. The first two concern the endemic equilibrium and its stability. We indicate the need for models that describe multi-strain infections, infections with time-varying infectivity, and those where superinfection is possible. We then consider the need for advances in spatial epidemic models, and draw attention to the lack of models that explore the relationship between communicable and non-communicable diseases. The final two challenges concern the uses and limitations of deterministic models as approximations to stochastic systems.
确定性模型在传染病流行病学研究中的应用有着悠久的历史。我们着重介绍并讨论了该领域的九个挑战。前两个挑战涉及地方病平衡点及其稳定性。我们指出需要能够描述多毒株感染、具有随时间变化传染性的感染以及可能发生重复感染的模型。接着，我们考虑空间流行病模型取得进展的必要性，并提请注意缺乏探索传染病与非传染病之间关系的模型。最后两个挑战涉及确定性模型作为随机系统近似的用途和局限性。
