Birdi Ratika, Stephan Blossom Christa Maree, Robinson Louise, Davis Daniel
Institute for Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
MRC Unit of Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London and Specialist Registrar in Geriatric Medicine, St Mary's Hospital, London, UK.
Postgrad Med J. 2015 Nov;91(1081):651-4. doi: 10.1136/postgradmedj-2015-133244. Epub 2015 Aug 31.
The worldwide prevalence of dementia is predicted to rise significantly in the next three decades. However, these projections have not taken into account the role of modifiable risk factors and whether any prevention strategies might influence the predicted trend. Attempts at pharmacological disease modification have largely been disappointing, and the difficulties in conducting dementia trials are reviewed here. In contrast, recent population studies in high-income countries suggest that the epidemiology may be changing with a possible decline in incident dementia, or even a reduction in age-specific prevalence. Therefore, efforts to develop public health interventions may prove to be the more successful approach to addressing dementia at a societal level.
预计在未来三十年里，痴呆症在全球的患病率将显著上升。然而，这些预测并未考虑可改变的风险因素的作用，以及任何预防策略是否可能影响预测趋势。药物性疾病改善的尝试大多令人失望，本文将对开展痴呆症试验的困难进行综述。相比之下，近期在高收入国家进行的人群研究表明，流行病学情况可能正在发生变化，新发痴呆症可能会减少，甚至特定年龄组的患病率也可能降低。因此，开展公共卫生干预措施的努力可能被证明是在社会层面应对痴呆症更成功的方法。
