Kriticos Darren J, Brunel Sarah, Ota Noboru, Fried Guillaume, Oude Lansink Alfons G J M, Panetta F Dane, Prasad T V Ramachandra, Shabbir Asad, Yaacoby Tuvia
CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, Paris, France.
PLoS One. 2015 Sep 1;10(9):e0132807. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0132807. eCollection 2015.
Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the 'Swiss Cheese' nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22-53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types.
有害生物风险评估（PRA）通常采用气候生态位模型来确定濒危区域。通常，这些模型仅考虑气候因素，而忽略了由于气候和栖息地因素相互作用导致的物种分布的“瑞士奶酪”性质。作为为欧洲和地中海植物保护组织开展的有害生物风险评估的一部分，我们为银胶菊开发了一个气候生态位模型，明确纳入了已知有灌溉行为地区的灌溉影响。然后，我们使用两种不同方法对气候风险模型进行降尺度处理，以确定适宜的栖息地类型：专家意见（遵循欧洲和地中海植物保护组织有害生物风险评估指南）以及从全球空间分布推断得出。有害生物风险评估显示，欧洲和地中海植物保护组织区域以及非洲中西部面临重大风险，凸显了避免银胶菊入侵的必要性。我们还考虑了气候变化对模拟风险的影响。气候变化情景表明，如果最低温度大幅上升，银胶菊在北半球温带地区（北美、欧洲和中东北部）以及高海拔赤道地区（巴西西部、非洲中部和东南亚）有进一步大幅扩散的风险。利用栖息地因素对气候模型进行降尺度处理，估计的濒危面积大幅减少（约22%-53%）。采用专家对适宜栖息地类别的评估，估计的濒危面积减少幅度最大，而从分布数据推断适宜栖息地因素则识别出更多土地利用类别和更大的濒危面积。尽管使用全球共形土地利用系统数据集存在一些尺度问题，但推断性降尺度方法显示出有望作为有害生物风险评估工具包的常规补充，既可以作为直接的模型组成部分，也可以仅仅作为一种更好地为专家评估适宜栖息地类型提供信息的手段。
