Chaput Michelle A, Kriesche Björn, Betts Matthew, Martindale Andrew, Kulik Rafal, Schmidt Volker, Gajewski Konrad
Laboratory for Paleoclimatology and Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5;
Institute of Stochastics, Ulm University, D-89069 Ulm, Germany;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Sep 29;112(39):12127-32. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1505657112. Epub 2015 Sep 8.
As the Cordilleran and Laurentide Ice Sheets retreated, North America was colonized by human populations; however, the spatial patterns of subsequent population growth are unclear. Temporal frequency distributions of aggregated radiocarbon ((14)C) dates are used as a proxy of population size and can be used to track this expansion. The Canadian Archaeological Radiocarbon Database contains more than 35,000 (14)C dates and is used in this study to map the spatiotemporal demographic changes of Holocene populations in North America at a continental scale for the past 13,000 y. We use the kernel method, which converts the spatial distribution of (14)C dates into estimates of population density at 500-y intervals. The resulting maps reveal temporally distinct, dynamic patterns associated with paleodemographic trends that correspond well to genetic, archaeological, and ethnohistoric evidence of human occupation. These results have implications for hypothesizing and testing migration routes into and across North America as well as the relative influence of North American populations on the evolution of the North American ecosystem.
随着科迪勒拉冰盖和劳伦泰德冰盖的消退,北美地区开始有人类定居;然而,后续人口增长的空间模式尚不清楚。汇总的放射性碳((14)C)年代测定的时间频率分布被用作人口规模的代理指标,可用于追踪这一扩张过程。加拿大考古放射性碳数据库包含超过35000个(14)C年代测定数据,本研究利用该数据库在大陆尺度上绘制了过去13000年北美全新世人口的时空人口变化图。我们使用核密度估计方法,将(14)C年代测定数据的空间分布转换为每500年间隔的人口密度估计值。由此产生的地图揭示了与古人口趋势相关的、在时间上截然不同的动态模式,这些模式与人类居住的遗传、考古和民族历史证据高度吻合。这些结果对于假设和检验进入北美及穿越北美的移民路线,以及北美人口对北美生态系统演变的相对影响具有重要意义。