Institute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square, London WC1H 0PY, UK.
Nat Commun. 2013;4:2486. doi: 10.1038/ncomms3486.
Following its initial arrival in SE Europe 8,500 years ago agriculture spread throughout the continent, changing food production and consumption patterns and increasing population densities. Here we show that, in contrast to the steady population growth usually assumed, the introduction of agriculture into Europe was followed by a boom-and-bust pattern in the density of regional populations. We demonstrate that summed calibrated radiocarbon date distributions and simulation can be used to test the significance of these demographic booms and busts in the context of uncertainty in the radiocarbon date calibration curve and archaeological sampling. We report these results for Central and Northwest Europe between 8,000 and 4,000 cal. BP and investigate the relationship between these patterns and climate. However, we find no evidence to support a relationship. Our results thus suggest that the demographic patterns may have arisen from endogenous causes, although this remains speculative.
农业在 8500 年前首次传入东南欧后，便在整个欧洲大陆传播开来，改变了食物生产和消费模式，增加了人口密度。在这里，我们发现，与通常假设的人口稳步增长相反，农业传入欧洲后，区域人口密度呈现出繁荣-萧条的模式。我们证明，总和校准的放射性碳日期分布和模拟可以用于测试这些人口繁荣和萧条在放射性碳日期校准曲线和考古采样的不确定性背景下的意义。我们报告了这些结果，用于 8000 至 4000 年前的中欧和西北欧，并调查了这些模式与气候之间的关系。然而，我们没有发现证据支持这种关系。因此，我们的结果表明，人口模式可能是由内生因素引起的，尽管这仍然是推测性的。
