Lowe Michael R, Feig Emily H, Winter Samantha R, Stice Eric
Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA; and
Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA; and.
Am J Clin Nutr. 2015 Nov;102(5):995-9. doi: 10.3945/ajcn.115.115402. Epub 2015 Sep 9.
Body weight in lower animals and humans is highly stable despite a very large flux in energy intake and expenditure over time. Conversely, the existence of higher-than-average variability in weight may indicate a disruption in the mechanisms responsible for homeostatic weight regulation.
In a sample chosen for weight-gain proneness, we evaluated whether weight variability over a 6-mo period predicted subsequent weight change from 6 to 24 mo.
A total of 171 nonobese women were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study in which weight was measured 4 times over 24 mo. The initial 3 weights were used to calculate weight variability with the use of a root mean square error approach to assess fluctuations in weight independent of trajectory. Linear regression analysis was used to examine whether weight variability in the initial 6 mo predicted weight change 18 mo later.
Greater weight variability significantly predicted amount of weight gained. This result was unchanged after control for baseline body mass index (BMI) and BMI change from baseline to 6 mo and for measures of disinhibition, restrained eating, and dieting.
Elevated weight variability in young women may signal the degradation of body weight regulatory systems. In an obesogenic environment this may eventuate in accelerated weight gain, particularly in those with a genetic susceptibility toward overweight. Future research is needed to evaluate the reliability of weight variability as a predictor of future weight gain and the sources of its predictive effect. The trial on which this study is based is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00456131.
尽管随着时间推移能量摄入和消耗有很大波动，但低等动物和人类的体重高度稳定。相反，体重高于平均水平的变异性存在可能表明负责体重稳态调节的机制受到破坏。
在一个因易于体重增加而选取的样本中，我们评估了6个月期间的体重变异性是否能预测随后6至24个月的体重变化。
共招募了171名非肥胖女性参与这项纵向研究，在24个月内对体重进行4次测量。最初的3次体重测量值用于通过均方根误差方法计算体重变异性，以评估独立于轨迹的体重波动。采用线性回归分析来检验最初6个月的体重变异性是否能预测18个月后的体重变化。
更大的体重变异性显著预测了体重增加量。在控制了基线体重指数（BMI）以及从基线到6个月时的BMI变化，以及去抑制、克制饮食和节食的测量指标后，这一结果不变。
年轻女性体重变异性升高可能预示着体重调节系统的退化。在致肥胖环境中，这可能导致体重加速增加，尤其是那些具有超重遗传易感性的人。需要进一步研究来评估体重变异性作为未来体重增加预测指标的可靠性及其预测作用的来源。本研究基于的试验已在clinicaltrials.gov上注册，注册号为NCT00456131。
