Jiang Hongbo, Xie Nianhua, Liu Jianhua, Zhang Zhixia, Liu Li, Yao Zhongzhao, Wang Xia, Nie Shaofa
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China (HJ, JL, ZZ, LL, SN); and Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China (NX, ZY, XW).
Medicine (Baltimore). 2015 Sep;94(36):e1511. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000001511.
The aim of this study was to present a definition of late presentation according to different time periods between initial diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) diagnosis which would reliably identify individuals with high risk of mortality within 1 year of diagnosis, and could be used as a suggested common definition.Data of individuals diagnosed from 1994 to February 2012 in Wuhan, China were extracted retrospectively from the national HIV surveillance system. Four time periods (1, 3, 6, and 12 months) combined with the European consensus definition of advanced HIV disease (AHD) were compared. The predictive ability of each definition for identifying an individual who died within 1 year after HIV diagnosis was assessed.A total of 980 patients were included, of whom 289 (29.49%), 324 (33.06%), 353 (36.02%), and 387 (39.49%) were defined as AHD according to the definition of a CD4 count <200 cells/μL or AIDS-defining event (ADE) within 1, 3, 6, and 12 months of HIV diagnosis, respectively. One hundred twenty-seven (12.96%) patients died within 1 year of diagnosis. The highest Youden's index and largest area under the curve were presented in time period within 3 months. Time period within 1 month presented the highest consistency rate, positive likelihood ratio, and kappa value. Longer time periods increased the sensitivity but decreased the specificity.Given the European consensus definitions and the current results, we suggested that AHD could be defined as "a first-reported CD4 count <200 cells/μL or an ADE within 1 month after HIV diagnosis." "Late presentation" could be defined as "a first-reported CD4 count <350 cells/μL or an ADE within 1 month after HIV diagnosis."
本研究的目的是根据人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染初始诊断与获得性免疫缺陷综合征(AIDS)诊断之间的不同时间段,给出晚期就诊的定义,该定义应能可靠地识别出诊断后1年内死亡风险高的个体,并可作为建议的通用定义。回顾性提取了1994年至2012年2月在中国武汉诊断的个体数据,这些数据来自国家HIV监测系统。将四个时间段(1、3、6和12个月)与欧洲晚期HIV疾病(AHD)共识定义进行了比较。评估了每个定义对识别HIV诊断后1年内死亡个体的预测能力。
共纳入980例患者,根据HIV诊断后1、3、6和12个月内CD4细胞计数<200个/μL或AIDS定义事件(ADE)的定义,分别有289例(29.49%)、324例(33.06%)、353例(36.02%)和387例(39.49%)被定义为AHD。127例(12.96%)患者在诊断后1年内死亡。3个月内时间段的约登指数最高,曲线下面积最大。1个月内时间段的一致性率、阳性似然比和kappa值最高。较长时间段增加了敏感性,但降低了特异性。
鉴于欧洲共识定义和当前结果,我们建议AHD可定义为“HIV诊断后1个月内首次报告的CD4细胞计数<200个/μL或ADE”。“晚期就诊”可定义为“HIV诊断后1个月内首次报告的CD4细胞计数<350个/μL或ADE”。