Rong Hao, Tian Jin, Zhao Tingdi
School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, PR China; China Aeronautical Radio Electronics Research Institute, Shanghai 200233, PR China.
School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, PR China.
Appl Ergon. 2016 Jan;52:196-206. doi: 10.1016/j.apergo.2015.07.006. Epub 2015 Aug 5.
In traditional approaches of human reliability assessment (HRA), the definition of the error producing conditions (EPCs) and the supporting guidance are such that some of the conditions (especially organizational or managerial conditions) can hardly be included, and thus the analysis is burdened with incomprehensiveness without reflecting the temporal trend of human reliability. A method based on system dynamics (SD), which highlights interrelationships among technical and organizational aspects that may contribute to human errors, is presented to facilitate quantitatively estimating the human error probability (HEP) and its related variables changing over time in a long period. Taking the Minuteman III missile accident in 2008 as a case, the proposed HRA method is applied to assess HEP during missile operations over 50 years by analyzing the interactions among the variables involved in human-related risks; also the critical factors are determined in terms of impact that the variables have on risks in different time periods. It is indicated that both technical and organizational aspects should be focused on to minimize human errors in a long run.
在传统的人员可靠性评估（HRA）方法中，错误产生条件（EPC）的定义及相关指导意见使得某些条件（尤其是组织或管理条件）难以被纳入其中，因此分析存在不全面性，且未反映出人员可靠性的时间趋势。提出了一种基于系统动力学（SD）的方法，该方法突出了可能导致人为错误的技术和组织方面之间的相互关系，便于在较长时期内定量估计人为错误概率（HEP）及其相关变量随时间的变化。以2008年民兵III型导弹事故为例，通过分析与人员相关风险中涉及的变量之间的相互作用，将所提出的HRA方法应用于评估50年导弹操作过程中的HEP；还根据变量在不同时间段对风险的影响确定了关键因素。结果表明，从长远来看，技术和组织方面都应予以关注，以尽量减少人为错误。
