Prettner Klaus, Bloom David E, Strulik Holger
Harvard University Center for Population and Development Studies 9 Bow Street Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Harvard University School of Public Health 665 Huntington Avenue Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA.
Labour Econ. 2013 Jun 1;22:70-79. doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2012.07.001.
It is widely argued that declining fertility slows the pace of economic growth in industrialized countries through its negative effect on labor supply. There are, however, theoretical arguments suggesting that the effect of falling fertility on labor supply can be offset by associated behavioral changes. We formalize these arguments by setting forth a dynamic consumer optimization model that incorporates endogenous fertility as well as endogenous education and health investments. The model shows that a fertility decline induces higher education and health investments that are able to compensate for declining fertility under certain circumstances. We assess the theoretical implications by investigating panel data for 118 countries over the period 1980 to 2005 and show that behavioral changes partly mitigate the negative impact of declining fertility on effective labor supply.
人们普遍认为，在工业化国家，生育率下降通过对劳动力供给产生负面影响，减缓了经济增长的步伐。然而，也有理论观点认为，生育率下降对劳动力供给的影响可以被相关的行为变化所抵消。我们通过建立一个动态消费者优化模型来将这些观点形式化，该模型纳入了内生生育率以及内生教育和健康投资。该模型表明，生育率下降会引发更高的教育和健康投资，在某些情况下，这些投资能够弥补生育率下降的影响。我们通过研究1980年至2005年期间118个国家的面板数据来评估这些理论含义，并表明行为变化部分减轻了生育率下降对有效劳动力供给的负面影响。
