Iglesias I, Rodríguez A, Feliziani F, Rolesu S, de la Torre A
Department of Epidemiology & Environmental Health, Animal Health Research Center (INIA-CISA), Madrid, Spain.
Instituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale Umbria e Marche, Perugia, Italy.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2017 Apr;64(2):656-662. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12408. Epub 2015 Sep 22.
African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable viral disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boars that has been endemic in Sardinia since 1978. Several risk factors complicate the control of ASF in Sardinia: generally poor level of biosecurity, traditional breeding practices, illegal behaviour in movements and feeding of pigs, and sporadic occurrence of long-term carriers. A previous study describes the disease in Sardinia during 1978-2013. The aim of this study was to gain more in-depth knowledge of the spatio-temporal pattern of ASF in Sardinia during 2012 to May 2014, comparing patterns of occurrence in domestic pigs and wild boar and identifying areas of local transmission. African swine fever notifications were studied considering seasonality, spatial autocorrelation, spatial point pattern and spatio-temporal clusters. Results showed differences in temporal and spatial pattern of wild boar and domestic pig notifications. The peak in wild boar notifications (October 2013 to February 2014) occurred six months after than in domestic pig (May to early summer 2013). Notifications of cases in both host species tended to be clustered, with a maximum significant distance of spatial association of 15 and 25 km in domestic pigs and wild boars, respectively. Five clusters for local ASF transmission were identified for domestic pigs, with a mean radius and duration of 4 km (3-9 km) and 38 days (6-55 days), respectively. Any wild boar clusters were found. The apparently secondary role of wild boar in ASF spread in Sardinia could be explained by certain socio-economic factors (illegal free-range pig breeding or the mingling of herds. The lack of effectiveness of previous surveillance and control programmes reveals the necessity of employing a new approach). Results present here provide better knowledge of the dynamics of ASF in Sardinia, which could be used in a more comprehensive risk analysis necessary to introduce a new approach in the eradication strategy.
非洲猪瘟（ASF）是一种影响家猪和野猪的应通报病毒性疾病，自1978年以来一直在撒丁岛流行。几个风险因素使撒丁岛的非洲猪瘟防控工作复杂化：生物安全水平普遍较低、传统养殖方式、猪只移动和喂养方面的非法行为以及长期带毒者的零星出现。此前一项研究描述了1978年至2013年期间撒丁岛的这种疾病。本研究的目的是更深入地了解2012年至2014年5月期间撒丁岛非洲猪瘟的时空模式，比较家猪和野猪的发病模式，并确定本地传播区域。对非洲猪瘟通报情况进行了季节性、空间自相关、空间点模式和时空聚集性研究。结果显示野猪和家猪通报的时间和空间模式存在差异。野猪通报的高峰期（2013年10月至2014年2月）比家猪（2013年5月至初夏）晚六个月出现。两种宿主物种的病例通报都倾向于聚集，家猪和野猪的空间关联最大显著距离分别为15公里和25公里。确定了家猪的五个本地非洲猪瘟传播聚集区，平均半径和持续时间分别为4公里（3 - 9公里）和38天（6 - 55天）。未发现野猪聚集区。野猪在撒丁岛非洲猪瘟传播中明显的次要作用可能由某些社会经济因素（非法散养猪养殖或猪群混杂）来解释。先前监测和控制计划缺乏成效表明有必要采用新方法。此处呈现的结果能更好地了解撒丁岛非洲猪瘟的动态，可用于更全面的风险分析，这对于在根除策略中引入新方法是必要的。
