Animal Health Research Center, National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (CISA-INIA), Valdeolmos, Madrid, Spain.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2017 Dec;64(6):1720-1733. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12559. Epub 2016 Sep 5.
The current African swine fever (ASF) epidemic in Eurasia represents a risk for the swine industry with devastating socio-economic and political consequences. Wild boar appears to be a key factor in maintaining the disease in endemic areas (mainly the Russian Federation) and spreading the disease across borders, including within the European Union. To help predict and interpret the dynamics of ASF infection, we developed a standardized distribution map based on global land cover vegetation (GLOBCOVER) that quantifies the quality of available habitats (QAH) for wild boar across Eurasia as an indirect index for quantifying numbers of wild boar. QAHs were estimated using a seven-level scale based on expert opinion and found to correlate closely with georeferenced presence of wild boar (n = 22 362): the highest wild boar densities (74.47%) were found in areas at the two highest QAH levels, while the lowest densities (5.66%) were found in areas at the lowest QAH levels. Mapping notifications from 2007 to 2016 onto the QAH map showed that in endemic areas, 60% of ASF notifications occurred in domestic pigs, mostly in agricultural landscapes (QAHs 1.75 and 1) containing low-biosecurity domestic pig farms. In the EU, in contrast, 95% of ASF notifications occurred in wild boar, within natural landscapes (QAH 2). These results suggest that the QAH map can be a useful epi-tool for defining risk scenarios and identifying potential travel corridors for ASF. This tool will help inform resource allocation decisions and improve prevention, control and surveillance of ASF and potentially of other diseases affecting swine and wild boar in Eurasia.
目前欧亚大陆的非洲猪瘟（ASF）疫情对养猪业构成了风险，带来了破坏性的社会经济和政治后果。野猪似乎是维持疾病在流行地区（主要是俄罗斯联邦）存在和疾病跨境传播（包括在欧盟内）的关键因素。为了帮助预测和解释 ASF 感染的动态，我们开发了一个基于全球土地覆盖植被（GLOBCOVER）的标准化分布地图，该地图量化了欧亚大陆野猪可用栖息地（QAH）的质量，作为量化野猪数量的间接指标。QAH 是根据专家意见使用七级量表估计的，与野猪的地理参考存在密切相关（n=22362）：最高的野猪密度（74.47%）出现在 QAH 最高两级的区域，而最低的密度（5.66%）出现在 QAH 最低两级的区域。将 2007 年至 2016 年的通知映射到 QAH 地图上显示，在流行地区，60%的 ASF 通知发生在国内猪中，主要发生在农业景观（QAHs 1.75 和 1）中，这些区域包含生物安全水平较低的国内养猪场。相比之下，在欧盟，95%的 ASF 通知发生在野猪中，位于自然景观（QAH 2）内。这些结果表明，QAH 地图可以成为一种有用的疫病工具，用于定义风险情景并确定 ASF 的潜在传播途径。该工具将有助于为资源分配决策提供信息，并改善欧亚大陆 ASF 和可能影响猪和野猪的其他疾病的预防、控制和监测。
