CSAE - University of Oxford, Department of Economics, Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom.
Soc Sci Med. 2016 Feb;150:271-8. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.09.023. Epub 2015 Sep 18.
This paper answers two questions: "What impact have natural resources had on the spread of the HIV epidemic so far?" and "What role can natural resource rents play in order to finance the long-run response to HIV/AIDS?" Using a panel dataset covering 137 countries from 1990 until 2008, de Soysa and Gizelis (2013) provided evidence in Social Science & Medicine that oil-rich countries are more deeply affected by the HIV and TB epidemics. They concluded that government of resource-rich countries failed to implement effective public policies for dealing with the epidemics. In this paper, I show that their results are (1) not robust, (2) based on an inappropriate choice of dependent variable and (3) spurious because series are non-stationary. After correcting for these issues, I find no robust relationship between resource rents and the spread of HIV and TB. The paper concludes by emphasizing the potential of natural resources rents for financing the long-term liability brought about by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.
“自然资源对艾滋病疫情的传播迄今产生了何种影响？”以及“自然资源租金可以发挥何种作用，从而为艾滋病病毒/艾滋病的长期应对提供资金？”利用涵盖 1990 年至 2008 年 137 个国家的面板数据集，de Soysa 和 Gizelis（2013）在《社会科学与医学》中提供了证据，表明石油资源丰富的国家受到艾滋病毒和结核病流行的影响更深。他们得出结论，资源丰富国家的政府未能实施有效的公共政策来应对这些流行病。在本文中，我表明他们的结果是（1）不稳健的，（2）基于对因变量的不当选择，（3）是虚假的，因为序列是非平稳的。在纠正了这些问题之后，我发现自然资源租金与艾滋病毒和结核病的传播之间没有稳健的关系。本文最后强调了自然资源租金在为撒哈拉以南非洲地区艾滋病病毒/艾滋病流行带来的长期负债提供资金方面的潜力。
